CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GVA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
GVA
Granite Construction Incorporated
GVA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GVA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
GVA's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GVA PE Valuation
GVA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GVA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GVA, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over GVA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
GVA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.17 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$6.02 | -266% |
| Q2 2026 | -$4.11 | -228% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.67 | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.86 | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.62 | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.21 | +65% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.55 | +219% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.62 | +170% |
GVA has swung to a loss: it lost $6.02 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GVA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GVA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $912.5M | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +4% |
| Q1 2025 | $699.5M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.3M | +4.7% |
GVA has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3.4% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.2% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | +4 points |
GVA's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
GVA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $228.7M | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $142.7M | +$169.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$57M | -$28.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $128.8M | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | -$27M | +$14M |
| Q1 2025 | -$28.6M | -$24.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $144.6M | +22% |
| Q2 2024 | -$41M | +$40.5M |
GVA has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GVA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +5.7% | +2.5M shares |
| 1 year | -14% | -7.3M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -7.4M shares |
| 5 years | -3.2% | -1.5M shares |
| Available history | 0% | -23K shares |
GVA has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $37.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $228,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $26.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $6.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $108,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $15.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $29.2M |
GVA spent $82M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 62% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GVA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GVA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2023 | 1.4x | Healthy |
GVA's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GVA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.9 | Neutral |
GVA's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GVA PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GVA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
GVA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GVA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $116.7 | 7.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $121.4 | 3.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $125.4 | 0.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $109.1 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $81.6 | 54% above |
GVA has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GVA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $26.9 | $27.1 | +0.6% |
| 2021 | $27.1 | $38.4 | +42% |
| 2022 | $38.4 | $35.4 | -7.7% |
| 2023 | $35.4 | $50.9 | +44% |
| 2024 | $50.9 | $89.1 | +75% |
| 2025 | $89.1 | $119.4 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $119.4 | $125.7 | +5.3% |
GVA has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.