CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GPN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
GPN
Global Payments Inc.
GPN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GPN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
GPN's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GPN PE Valuation
GPN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GPN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GPN, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over GPN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
GPN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $15.48 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$4.57 | -164% |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.99 | -152% |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.05 | -133% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.78 | -6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.10 | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.70 | +4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.18 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.16 | +63% |
GPN has swung to a loss: it lost $4.57 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over GPN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GPN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GPN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | +65% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +70% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | -23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $2B | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.4B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +3.4% |
GPN's revenue is growing: $3.3B last quarter, up 65% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.5% | -31 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5% | -20 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.8% | -24 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +21 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | +13 points |
GPN's operating margin was 7.5% last quarter, down 31 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over GPN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
GPN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$392.8M | -166% |
| Q2 2026 | $427M | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | -$550.2M | -229% |
| Q4 2025 | $347M | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $598.9M | -62% |
| Q2 2025 | $665.4M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $427.5M | +58% |
| Q4 2024 | $469.4M | -6.1% |
GPN's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$169M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GPN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GPN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -5M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +25M shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +4.2M shares |
| 5 years | -9.3% | -27.3M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -35.7M shares |
GPN has 265M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago, despite $1.2B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $140M |
| Q2 2026 | $550M |
| Q1 2026 | $549.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $69,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $500M |
| Q2 2025 | $244.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $446.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $651.9M |
GPN spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 33% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GPN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GPN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
GPN's net debt is about 4.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GPN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.4 | Neutral |
GPN's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GPN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GPN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
GPN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GPN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $87.0 | 1.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $86.2 | 2.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $78.0 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $83.1 | 6.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $98.0 | 10% below |
GPN has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GPN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $182.9 | $205.6 | +12% |
| 2021 | $205.6 | $135.4 | -34% |
| 2022 | $135.4 | $96.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $96.7 | $127.0 | +31% |
| 2024 | $127.0 | $112.4 | -12% |
| 2025 | $112.4 | $80.4 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $80.4 | $88.2 | +9.8% |
GPN has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.