CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GPGI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
GPGI
GPGI, Inc.
GPGI trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GPGI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| Unavailable | |
| Strong |
GPGI's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. There isn't enough data to rate its cash flow.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over GPGI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GPGI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.3x | $0.53 | -96% |
| Fair | 6.5x | $0.65 | -95% |
| Expensive | 7.3x | $0.73 | -95% |
| Forward | 13x | $14.02 | — |
| Current | 140x | $14.02 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GPGI's PE is in its expensive range at 140x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over GPGI on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
GPGI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect GPGI's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over GPGI in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
GPGI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.07 | +970% |
| Q4 2023 | $0.80 | -15% |
GPGI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.10 over the past year, against $0.94 in late 2022.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over GPGI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GPGI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $59.8M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.9M | +1% |
| Q3 2024 | $107.1M | +11% |
| Q2 2024 | $108.6M | +10% |
| Q1 2024 | $104M | +9.1% |
| Q4 2023 | $99.9M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2023 | $96.9M | -6.2% |
| Q2 2023 | $98.5M | +1.4% |
GPGI's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $0 last quarter.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -20 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -15 points |
| Q3 2024 | 27% | -2.6 points |
| Q2 2024 | 29% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2024 | 30% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2023 | 31% | +4.1 points |
| Q3 2023 | 30% | +4.9 points |
| Q2 2023 | 31% | -4.6 points |
GPGI's operating margin was 10% last quarter, down 20 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2022.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over GPGI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
GPGI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.5M | +$10.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $8.6M | +23143% |
| Q1 2026 | -$52.6M | -1847% |
| Q4 2025 | -$14M | -143% |
| Q3 2025 | -$11.9M | -145% |
| Q2 2025 | $37K | -100% |
| Q1 2025 | $3M | -91% |
| Q4 2024 | $32.8M | +48% |
GPGI's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$59M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GPGI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GPGI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +49.2K shares |
| 1 year | +186% | +190M shares |
| 3 years | +1135% | +269M shares |
GPGI has 292M diluted shares, up 186% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
GPGI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | -9.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 2.3x | Moderate |
GPGI has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GPGI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.0 | Neutral |
GPGI's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over GPGI on valuation relative to its sector.
GPGI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GPGI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 140x | 24x | 482% above |
| PE % | 98 | 56 | 42 pts above |
GPGI is trading at 140x earnings, a 482% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GPGI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.5 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.2 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.6 | 10% below |
| 200 week MA | $11.1 | 27% above |
GPGI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over GPGI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GPGI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $8.19 | $8.48 | +3.5% |
| 2021 | $8.48 | $8.37 | -1.3% |
| 2022 | $8.37 | $4.04 | -52% |
| 2023 | $4.04 | $4.49 | +11% |
| 2024 | $4.49 | $13.2 | +193% |
| 2025 | $13.2 | $19.5 | +48% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.5 | $14.0 | -28% |
GPGI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +193% in 2024 to −52% in 2022. It's down 28% so far in 2026.