CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.
GNRC has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GNRC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
GNRC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over GNRC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GNRC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $193 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $125 | -35% |
| Fair | 36x | $184 | -4.6% |
| Current | 38x | $193 | — |
| Expensive | 51x | $260 | +35% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GNRC's PE is in its fair range at 38x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GNRC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for GNRC, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GNRC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.08 | +139% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.06 | -3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.35 | -28% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.20 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.69 | -50% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.24 | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.01 | +54% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.73 | +58% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.39 | +64% |
GNRC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GNRC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GNRC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | -5% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +6.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $942.1M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +16% |
GNRC's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $1.3B last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +7.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8% | -17 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | -5.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +1.8 points |
GNRC's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over GNRC on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
GNRC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $131.7M | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $62.9M | +335% |
| Q1 2026 | $89.9M | +230% |
| Q4 2025 | $129.9M | -55% |
| Q3 2025 | $96.5M | -47% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.5M | -71% |
| Q1 2025 | $27.2M | -68% |
| Q4 2024 | $286.1M | +7.7% |
GNRC still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2024 peak: $414M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GNRC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GNRC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -72.7K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +440K shares |
| 3 years | -4.1% | -2.5M shares |
| 5 years | -7.2% | -4.6M shares |
| Available history | -5.3% | -3.3M shares |
GNRC has 60M diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $50.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $97.5M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
GNRC hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GNRC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GNRC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
GNRC's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GNRC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
GNRC's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over GNRC on valuation relative to its sector.
GNRC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GNRC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 38x | 24x | 58% above |
| PE % | 54 | 58 | 4 pts below |
GNRC is trading at 38x earnings, a 58% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GNRC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $199.6 | 3.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $205.0 | 5.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $208.3 | 7.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $179.7 | 7.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $154.8 | 25% above |
GNRC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 25% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GNRC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.7 | $233.2 | +129% |
| 2021 | $233.2 | $351.3 | +51% |
| 2022 | $351.3 | $92.2 | -74% |
| 2023 | $92.2 | $129.2 | +40% |
| 2024 | $129.2 | $155.7 | +20% |
| 2025 | $155.7 | $140.6 | -9.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $140.6 | $192.9 | +37% |
GNRC has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.