CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GBX overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GBX
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
GBX trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GBX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
GBX's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over GBX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GBX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.6x | $23.84 | -43% |
| Forward | 13x | $41.91 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $36.86 | -12% |
| Current | 17x | $41.91 | — |
| Expensive | 40x | $99.65 | +138% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GBX's PE is in its fair range at 17x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over GBX on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
GBX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GBX, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GBX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.20 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.49 | -61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.42 | -51% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.68 | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.77 | +0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.35 | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.05 | +84% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.25 | +83% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.72 | +70% |
GBX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over GBX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GBX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GBX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $591M | -22% |
| Q2 2026 | $576.5M | -32% |
| Q1 2026 | $587.5M | -23% |
| Q4 2025 | $706.1M | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $759.5M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $842.7M | +2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $762.1M | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $875.9M | +8.3% |
GBX's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $591M last quarter, down 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.3% | -5.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.5% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | -6.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.7% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +4.7 points |
GBX's operating margin was 4.3% last quarter, down 5.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over GBX on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
GBX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$100.6M | -477% |
| Q2 2026 | -$286.4M | -607% |
| Q1 2026 | $128.6M | +389% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.7M | +$142.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $26.7M | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $56.5M | +$106.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $26.3M | +$49.4M |
| Q4 2024 | -$124.2M | -$11.2M |
GBX's free cash flow was −$240M over the past year, against −$15M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GBX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GBX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +27K shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -367K shares |
| 3 years | -6% | -2M shares |
| 5 years | -5.6% | -1.9M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -1.5M shares |
GBX has 32M diluted shares, down 1.1% from a year ago, with $13M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $100,000 |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $400,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $12.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $900,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $21.8M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
GBX spent $13M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GBX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GBX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
GBX's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.0 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GBX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.6 | Neutral |
GBX's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GBX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GBX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 24x | 30% below |
| PE % | 58 | 58 | Same percentile |
GBX has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over GBX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GBX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $40.2 | 4.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.0 | 4.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $47.8 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $48.9 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $46.4 | 9.7% below |
GBX has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 9.7% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over GBX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GBX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $32.6 | $37.3 | +14% |
| 2021 | $37.3 | $44.7 | +20% |
| 2022 | $44.7 | $34.6 | -22% |
| 2023 | $34.6 | $44.2 | +28% |
| 2024 | $44.2 | $62.0 | +40% |
| 2025 | $62.0 | $46.9 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $46.9 | $41.9 | -11% |
GBX has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.