CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
GATX
GATX Corporation
GATX has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GATX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
GATX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GATX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $173 | -8.4% |
| Current | 18x | $189 | — |
| Forward | 18x | $189 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $211 | +11% |
| Expensive | 25x | $267 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GATX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over GATX on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
GATX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GATX, but weaker profitability.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GATX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.76 | -0.1% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.77 | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.10 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.32 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.12 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.57 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.75 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.90 | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.78 | +9.3% |
GATX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GATX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $598M | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $580.1M | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $583.7M | +38% |
| Q4 2025 | $449M | +8.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $439.3M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $430.5M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $421.6M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $413.5M | +12% |
GATX's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $598M last quarter, up 36% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 28% | -4.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +16 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | +21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +1.6 points |
GATX has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
GATX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $244.2M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $276.2M | +71% |
| Q1 2026 | $199.1M | +60% |
| Q4 2025 | $144.3M | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $218.3M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $161.3M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $124.2M | +27% |
| Q3 2024 | $160.2M | +13% |
GATX has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GATX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GATX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.1% | -400K shares |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | -1.1% | -400K shares |
| 5 years | -1.7% | -600K shares |
| Available history | -2.7% | -1M shares |
GATX has 35M diluted shares, down 1.7% from a year ago, with $177M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $47.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $46.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $15.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $100,000 |
GATX spent $177M buying back its own shares over the past year, about nine times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GATX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GATX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 11.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 10.9x | High |
GATX has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GATX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.7 | Neutral |
GATX's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GATX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GATX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 24x | 27% below |
| PE % | 23 | 58 | 35 pts below |
GATX has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GATX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $175.5 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $177.4 | 6.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $178.5 | 6% above |
| 100 week MA | $168.3 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $146.7 | 29% above |
GATX has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GATX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $84.4 | $84.4 | 0% |
| 2021 | $84.4 | $103.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $103.1 | $109.6 | +6.3% |
| 2023 | $109.6 | $120.2 | +9.7% |
| 2024 | $120.2 | $155.4 | +29% |
| 2025 | $155.4 | $173.2 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $173.2 | $189.3 | +9.3% |
GATX has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.