CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over FWRD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
FWRD
Forward Air Corporation
FWRD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
FWRD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
FWRD's revenue is currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
FWRD PE Valuation
FWRD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 60x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
FWRD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect FWRD to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
FWRD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.29 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$8.03 | -$4.18 |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.89 | -$2.90 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$26.13 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.51 | +$26.67 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.85 | +$21.16 |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.99 | +$16.00 |
| Q1 2025 | -$29.05 | -1397% |
| Q4 2024 | -$30.18 | -570% |
FWRD is still losing money, but far less than before: $8.03 per share over the past year, against $30.18 at its worst in late 2024.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FWRD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $673.9M | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $673M | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $582M | -5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $631.2M | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $631.8M | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $618.8M | -3.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $613.3M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $632.8M | +87% |
FWRD's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $674M last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.5% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | -30% | -33 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5% | +2.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5% | -12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.4% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1% | +173 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +14 points |
FWRD's operating margin was 6.5% last quarter, up 4.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
FWRD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $32.2M | -34% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.1M | +$9.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $38.8M | +147% |
| Q4 2025 | -$31.1M | -$584K |
| Q3 2025 | $48.6M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | -$18M | +$41.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $15.7M | +$72.4M |
| Q4 2024 | -$30.5M | -194% |
FWRD has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
FWRD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +44K shares |
| 1 year | +5% | +1.6M shares |
| 3 years | +26% | +6.8M shares |
| 5 years | +20% | +5.4M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +4.2M shares |
FWRD has 33M diluted shares, up 5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $14M |
| Q2 2023 | $29.3M |
| Q1 2023 | $50.5M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FWRD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 99.4x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 7.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 6.2x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 32.1x | High |
| Q4 2023 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | 0.5x | Very low |
FWRD's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
FWRD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 47.8 | Neutral |
FWRD's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 48 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
FWRD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | FWRD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
FWRD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
FWRD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.0 | 7.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.0 | 7% above |
| 50 week MA | $18.6 | 7.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $21.5 | 20% below |
| 200 week MA | $41.0 | 58% below |
FWRD has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 58% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over FWRD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
FWRD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $69.3 | $76.1 | +9.8% |
| 2021 | $76.1 | $116.6 | +53% |
| 2022 | $116.6 | $105.4 | -9.6% |
| 2023 | $105.4 | $62.9 | -40% |
| 2024 | $62.9 | $30.1 | -52% |
| 2025 | $30.1 | $25.5 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $25.5 | $17.2 | -33% |
FWRD has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 33% so far in 2026.