CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FIX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
FIX has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
FIX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
FIX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
FIX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $746 | -34% |
| Forward | 18x | $1,128 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $1,096 | -2.9% |
| Current | 24x | $1,128 | — |
| Expensive | 37x | $1,695 | +50% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FIX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FIX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for FIX, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
FIX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $62.60 | +35% |
| Q3 2026 | $46.30 | +96% |
| Q2 2026 | $40.64 | +109% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.64 | +108% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.88 | +98% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.61 | +81% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.45 | +63% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.66 | +65% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.60 | +62% |
FIX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over FIX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FIX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8B | +54% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +50% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +38% |
FIX has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +4.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +3.3 points |
FIX's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 1.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
FIX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $799.5M | +54% |
| Q2 2026 | $998.1M | +351% |
| Q1 2026 | $241.4M | +$351.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $402.5M | +137% |
| Q3 2025 | $517.9M | +85% |
| Q2 2025 | $221.2M | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | -$110.2M | -191% |
| Q4 2024 | $169.8M | +15% |
FIX has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over FIX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
FIX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -102K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -213K shares |
| 3 years | -2.1% | -765K shares |
| 5 years | -3.5% | -1.3M shares |
| Available history | -5.3% | -2M shares |
FIX has 35M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago, with $438M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $337.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $5.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $2.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $91.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $13.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $19.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $91.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $15.9M |
FIX spent $438M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
FIX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
FIX has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
FIX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.3 | Oversold |
FIX's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over FIX on valuation relative to its sector.
FIX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | FIX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.4% above |
| PE % | 53 | 58 | 5 pts below |
FIX is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
FIX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,385.1 | 19% below |
| 20 week MA | $1,565.6 | 28% below |
| 50 week MA | $1,496.2 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $1,036.8 | 8.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $642.3 | 76% above |
FIX has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 76% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
FIX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.1 | $53.6 | +6.8% |
| 2021 | $53.6 | $98.8 | +85% |
| 2022 | $98.8 | $118.2 | +20% |
| 2023 | $118.2 | $205.7 | +74% |
| 2024 | $205.7 | $432.0 | +110% |
| 2025 | $432.0 | $963.8 | +123% |
| 2026 YTD | $963.8 | $1,128.1 | +17% |
FIX has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.