CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
EXPO
Exponent, Inc.
EXPO has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
EXPO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
EXPO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
EXPO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 33x | $86.22 | — |
| Cheap | 36x | $82.56 | -4.2% |
| Current | 37x | $86.22 | — |
| Fair | 47x | $109 | +27% |
| Expensive | 55x | $127 | +48% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EXPO has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EXPO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for EXPO, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
EXPO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.58 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.31 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.22 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.14 | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.07 | -1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.04 | -1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.99 | -2.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.04 | +3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.11 | +8.8% |
EXPO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
EXPO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $173.7M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $171.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $166.3M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $147.4M | +7.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $147.1M | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $142M | +1% |
| Q1 2025 | $145.5M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $136.8M | +11% |
EXPO's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $174M last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 24% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | -5.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -13 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +9.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +5 points |
EXPO has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over EXPO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
EXPO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $62.1M | +107% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.1M | -14% |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.4M | -162% |
| Q4 2025 | $52.9M | -1% |
| Q3 2025 | $30M | +7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $33.9M | -28% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.5M | -38% |
| Q4 2024 | $53.5M | -23% |
EXPO generated $141M in free cash flow over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
EXPO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -565K shares |
| 1 year | -5.4% | -2.8M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -3.2M shares |
| 5 years | -9.2% | -4.9M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -5.4M shares |
EXPO has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $67.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $78.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $24.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $1,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $244,000 |
EXPO spent $171M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
EXPO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
EXPO has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
EXPO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 82.5 | Overbought |
EXPO's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over EXPO on valuation relative to its sector.
EXPO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | EXPO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37x | 24x | 55% above |
| PE % | 21 | 58 | 37 pts below |
EXPO is trading at 37x earnings, a 55% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
EXPO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $75.1 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $69.7 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $68.2 | 27% above |
| 100 week MA | $72.7 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $83.0 | 3.9% above |
EXPO has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
EXPO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $69.5 | $88.8 | +28% |
| 2021 | $88.8 | $114.0 | +28% |
| 2022 | $114.0 | $100.6 | -12% |
| 2023 | $100.6 | $88.0 | -12% |
| 2024 | $88.0 | $89.4 | +1.6% |
| 2025 | $89.4 | $71.4 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $71.4 | $86.2 | +21% |
EXPO has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.