CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ESP
Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.
ESP has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ESP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
ESP's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ESP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $46.70 | -2.5% |
| Current | 12x | $47.90 | — |
| Forward | 13x | $47.90 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $65.75 | +37% |
| Expensive | 33x | $127 | +165% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ESP has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ESP on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
ESP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ESP's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ESP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.61 | -7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.79 | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.43 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.15 | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.00 | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.68 | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.45 | +31% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.46 | +52% |
ESP has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ESP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $13.5M | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.4M | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.1M | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.1M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.6M | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.3M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.6M | +32% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.4M | +22% |
ESP has the edge over CAT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 26% | -1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +9.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +9.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -5.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 16% | +2.2 points |
ESP has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ESP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$914.5K | -200% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2M | -70% |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.1M | -192% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.4M | +511% |
| Q2 2025 | $915.3K | -65% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.5M | +2667% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.5M | +116% |
| Q3 2024 | $724.8K | +88% |
ESP has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ESP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ESP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -14.5K shares |
| 1 year | +6.5% | +175K shares |
| 3 years | +16% | +400K shares |
| 5 years | +19% | +465K shares |
| Available history | +20% | +475K shares |
ESP has 3M diluted shares, up 6.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | $39,658 |
| Q3 2019 | $8,291 |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
ESP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
ESP has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ESP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.1 | Oversold |
ESP's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ESP PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ESP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 24x | 49% below |
| PE % | 20 | 58 | 38 pts below |
ESP has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ESP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.5 | 14% below |
| 20 week MA | $59.4 | 19% below |
| 50 week MA | $57.8 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $47.2 | 1.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $34.1 | 40% above |
ESP has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 40% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
ESP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.5 | $19.7 | -8.5% |
| 2021 | $19.7 | $13.1 | -34% |
| 2022 | $13.1 | $14.0 | +7.2% |
| 2023 | $14.0 | $18.7 | +33% |
| 2024 | $18.7 | $30.8 | +65% |
| 2025 | $30.8 | $45.4 | +47% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.4 | $47.9 | +5.6% |
ESP has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.