CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ERII overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
ERII
Energy Recovery, Inc.
ERII trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ERII Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ERII's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its profitability is stable, but its revenue is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over ERII in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ERII PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 33x | $2.62 | -64% |
| Fair | 44x | $3.49 | -51% |
| Expensive | 85x | $6.82 | -4.8% |
| Current | 90x | $7.17 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ERII's PE is in its expensive range at 90x.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ERII on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
ERII Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Turning to a loss | |
| Strong decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ERII's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ERII Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.08 | -76% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.27 | -34% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.37 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.42 | +5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.33 | -2.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.41 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.36 | +5.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.40 | +8.1% |
ERII has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over ERII on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ERII on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ERII Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2M | -65% |
| Q2 2026 | $12M | -57% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.7M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $66.9M | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $32M | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $28.1M | +3.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.1M | -33% |
| Q4 2024 | $67.1M | +17% |
ERII's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $11M last quarter, down 65% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -87% | -99 points |
| Q2 2026 | -49% | -54 points |
| Q1 2026 | -153% | +2.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +8.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -6.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.3% | +13 points |
| Q1 2025 | -156% | -65 points |
| Q4 2024 | 38% | +2.1 points |
ERII's operating margin was −87% last quarter, down 99 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over ERII on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ERII Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.7M | -$6.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $15.4M | +285% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.2M | +93% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.4M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.5M | -$301K |
| Q2 2025 | $4M | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.5M | +85% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.9M | -29% |
ERII usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$10M, but it generated $32M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ERII Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -430K shares |
| 1 year | -4.6% | -2.4M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -6.9M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -7.7M shares |
| Available history | -9% | -5M shares |
ERII has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $10M |
| Q1 2026 | $10.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $10.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $17.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $4.5M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ERII spent $26M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
ERII Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
ERII has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ERII Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.1 | Neutral |
ERII's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ERII on valuation relative to its sector.
ERII PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ERII | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 90x | 24x | 272% above |
| PE % | 87 | 58 | 29 pts above |
ERII is trading at 90x earnings, a 272% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ERII on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ERII Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.88 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.66 | 6.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.1 | 29% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.3 | 42% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.8 | 55% below |
ERII has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 55% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ERII on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ERII Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.97 | $13.7 | +37% |
| 2021 | $13.7 | $21.1 | +55% |
| 2022 | $21.1 | $21.0 | -0.7% |
| 2023 | $21.0 | $18.8 | -10% |
| 2024 | $18.8 | $14.9 | -21% |
| 2025 | $14.9 | $13.9 | -6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.9 | $7.17 | -48% |
ERII has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 48% so far in 2026.