CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
EFX
Equifax Inc.
EFX has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
EFX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
EFX's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
EFX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $187 | — |
| Current | 30x | $187 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $208 | +11% |
| Fair | 46x | $287 | +54% |
| Expensive | 58x | $359 | +92% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EFX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EFX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for EFX, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
EFX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.06 | +46% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.19 | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.69 | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.68 | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.32 | +9.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.28 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.12 | +9.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.90 | +9.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.84 | +10% |
EFX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
EFX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +7.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +7% |
EFX's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $1.7B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +3.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | -2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | 0 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.8 points |
EFX has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
EFX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $436.9M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $204.8M | -14% |
| Q1 2026 | $121.5M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $340.8M | +66% |
| Q3 2025 | $437.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $238.9M | +83% |
| Q1 2025 | $116.7M | -3.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $205.9M | +17% |
EFX has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
EFX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -5.8M shares |
| 5 years | -4.5% | -5.6M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -3.9M shares |
EFX has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92M |
| Q2 2026 | $300M |
| Q1 2026 | $260M |
| Q4 2025 | $500.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $300M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
EFX spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over EFX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
EFX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
EFX's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
EFX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 82.1 | Overbought |
EFX's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over EFX on valuation relative to its sector.
EFX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | EFX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 24x | 26% above |
| PE % | 7 | 58 | 51 pts below |
EFX is trading at 30x earnings, a 26% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
EFX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $167.3 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $172.7 | 8.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $183.0 | 2% above |
| 100 week MA | $214.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $224.3 | 17% below |
EFX has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over EFX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
EFX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $140.2 | $194.0 | +38% |
| 2021 | $194.0 | $287.0 | +48% |
| 2022 | $287.0 | $195.7 | -32% |
| 2023 | $195.7 | $247.3 | +26% |
| 2024 | $247.3 | $256.0 | +3.5% |
| 2025 | $256.0 | $222.1 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $222.1 | $186.8 | -16% |
EFX has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 16% so far in 2026.