CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ECG
Everus Construction Group, Inc.
ECG has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ECG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ECG's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ECG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $87.17 | — |
| Current | 15x | $87.17 | — |
| Cheap | 20x | $113 | +29% |
| Fair | 25x | $142 | +63% |
| Expensive | 31x | $174 | +100% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ECG has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ECG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ECG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ECG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.78 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.66 | +60% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.98 | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.37 | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.95 | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.54 | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.25 | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.98 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.92 | +19% |
ECG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ECG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ECG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +33% |
| Q3 2025 | $986.8M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $921.5M | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $826.6M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $759.6M | +19% |
ECG has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.8% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.5% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.8% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.9% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.2% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.1% | -2 points |
ECG's operating margin was 8.8% last quarter, up 1.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over ECG on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ECG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $52.7M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $33M | +169% |
| Q1 2026 | $128.2M | +$139.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $23.5M | -65% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.3M | +$37.7M |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.4M | -190% |
| Q4 2024 | $66.9M | -35% |
| Q2 2024 | -$25.4M | -$6M |
ECG generated $237M in free cash flow over the past year, up 78% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ECG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ECG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +19K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +102K shares |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +267K shares |
ECG has 51M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ECG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ECG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2024 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.9x | Very low |
ECG's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ECG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.6 | Oversold |
ECG's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ECG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ECG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 24x | 36% below |
| PE % | 9 | 31 | 22 pts below |
ECG has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has stronger trend alignment. CAT is above 2 of 5 weekly averages versus ECG above 0 of 4.
ECG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.2 | 16% below |
| 20 week MA | $118.5 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $119.1 | 27% below |
| 100 week MA | $92.3 | 5.5% below |
ECG is in a downtrend: it's below all four of its weekly moving averages, and 5.5% below its 100-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ECG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ECG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $52.5 | $69.9 | +33% |
| 2025 | $69.9 | $90.1 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $90.1 | $87.2 | -3.2% |
ECG has finished every year since 2024 higher, and it's down 3.2% so far in 2026.