CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
CW has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
CW's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over CW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $311 | -35% |
| Fair | 25x | $369 | -23% |
| Forward | 28x | $477 | — |
| Current | 32x | $477 | — |
| Expensive | 40x | $606 | +27% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CW's PE is in its expensive range at 32x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CW, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $16.88 | +13% |
| Q3 2026 | $14.99 | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.53 | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.65 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.87 | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.27 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.85 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.24 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.55 | +15% |
CW has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $952.6M | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $924M | +5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $913.7M | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $947M | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $869.2M | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $876.6M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $805.6M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $824.3M | +4.9% |
CW's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $953M last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -1.7 points |
CW's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $140.4M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $151.7M | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | -$17.5M | +$37.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $315.1M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $175.9M | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $117.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | -$54.5M | +$3.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $278M | +3.1% |
CW has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -270K shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -813K shares |
| 3 years | -4.4% | -1.7M shares |
| 5 years | -10% | -4.1M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -6.2M shares |
CW has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $352.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $14.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $14.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $139.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $290M |
| Q2 2025 | $20.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $14.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $112.4M |
CW spent $522M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 19% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
CW's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.6 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 10.4 | Oversold |
CW's weekly RSI is 30 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CW on valuation relative to its sector.
CW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 24x | 32% above |
| PE % | 72 | 58 | 14 pts above |
CW is trading at 32x earnings, a 32% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over CW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $497.7 | 4.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $599.7 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $645.7 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $539.5 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $388.5 | 23% above |
CW has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 23% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $141.7 | $113.3 | -20% |
| 2021 | $113.3 | $135.9 | +20% |
| 2022 | $135.9 | $165.0 | +21% |
| 2023 | $165.0 | $222.8 | +35% |
| 2024 | $222.8 | $359.4 | +61% |
| 2025 | $359.4 | $566.2 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $566.2 | $477.0 | -16% |
CW has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 16% so far in 2026.