CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CTOS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
CTOS's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CTOS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
CTOS's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over CTOS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CTOS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 24x | $3.42 | -67% |
| Fair | 39x | $5.42 | -48% |
| Forward | 41x | $10.34 | — |
| Current | 74x | $10.34 | — |
| Expensive | 202x | $28.34 | +174% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CTOS's PE is in its expensive range at 74x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 41x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CTOS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CTOS, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CTOS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.25 | +80% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.14 | +$0.27 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.10 | +$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.08 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.14 | -$0.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.13 | +$0.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.17 | -$0.11 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.14 | -256% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.12 | -157% |
CTOS has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CTOS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CTOS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $495.2M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $563.4M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $461.6M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $528.2M | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $482.1M | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $511.5M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $422.2M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $520.7M | -0.2% |
CTOS's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $495M last quarter, up 2.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.3% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.8% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8% | -3.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +2.7 points |
CTOS's operating margin was 7.7% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CTOS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $163.5M | +101% |
| Q2 2026 | $44.4M | -65% |
| Q1 2026 | $23.8M | -57% |
| Q4 2025 | $47.3M | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $81.5M | +393% |
| Q2 2025 | $125.7M | +233% |
| Q1 2025 | $55.6M | +$70M |
| Q4 2024 | $82.1M | +$110.2M |
CTOS has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CTOS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CTOS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +221K shares |
| 1 year | +1.5% | +3.3M shares |
| 3 years | -6.8% | -16.7M shares |
| 5 years | -5.9% | -14.4M shares |
| Available history | +369% | +181M shares |
CTOS has 230M diluted shares, up 1.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $32.6M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
CTOS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CTOS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CTOS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2x | High |
CTOS's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CTOS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.6 | Neutral |
CTOS's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CTOS on valuation relative to its sector.
CTOS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CTOS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 74x | 24x | 207% above |
| PE % | 70 | 58 | 12 pts above |
CTOS is trading at 74x earnings, a 207% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CTOS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.61 | 7.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $9.82 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $8.55 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $6.86 | 51% above |
| 200 week MA | $6.29 | 64% above |
CTOS has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CTOS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.05 | $7.24 | +79% |
| 2021 | $7.24 | $8.04 | +11% |
| 2022 | $8.04 | $6.14 | -24% |
| 2023 | $6.14 | $6.18 | +0.7% |
| 2024 | $6.18 | $4.72 | -24% |
| 2025 | $4.72 | $5.97 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.97 | $10.3 | +73% |
CTOS has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.