CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CSW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CSW
CSW Industrials, Inc.
CSW offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CSW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
CSW's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CSW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 22x | $282 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $198 | -30% |
| Fair | 34x | $263 | -6.7% |
| Current | 36x | $282 | — |
| Expensive | 43x | $333 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CSW has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CSW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CSW, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CSW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.06 | +67% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.80 | -8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.31 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.70 | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.51 | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.49 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.34 | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.38 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.36 | +34% |
CSW has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CSW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $361.4M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $350.7M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $309M | +34% |
| Q4 2025 | $233M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $277M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $263.6M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $230.5M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $193.6M | +11% |
CSW has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -6.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.4% | -7.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -0.5 points |
CSW has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CSW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $91.9M | +56% |
| Q2 2026 | $69.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.8M | -130% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.7M | +169% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.7M | -4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $57.7M | -3.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.8M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.5M | -80% |
CSW has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CSW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -32K shares |
| 1 year | -3% | -509K shares |
| 3 years | +4.8% | +745K shares |
| 5 years | +3.3% | +522K shares |
| Available history | +7.1% | +1.1M shares |
CSW has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $36.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $34M |
| Q4 2025 | $72.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $17M |
| Q2 2025 | $9.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $6.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $8.6M |
CSW spent $149M buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CSW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CSW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
CSW's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CSW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 10.8 | Oversold |
CSW's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CSW on valuation relative to its sector.
CSW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CSW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 24x | 50% above |
| PE % | 57 | 58 | 1 pt below |
CSW is trading at 36x earnings, a 50% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over CSW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CSW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $288.8 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $299.8 | 6.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $292.5 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $292.2 | 3.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $259.4 | 8.5% above |
CSW has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 8.5% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CSW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CSW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $77.3 | $111.7 | +45% |
| 2021 | $111.7 | $117.0 | +4.8% |
| 2022 | $117.0 | $117.2 | +0.1% |
| 2023 | $117.2 | $207.4 | +77% |
| 2024 | $207.4 | $357.4 | +72% |
| 2025 | $357.4 | $307.3 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $307.3 | $281.6 | -8.4% |
CSW has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 8.4% so far in 2026.