CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CSL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CSL
Carlisle Companies Incorporated
CSL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
CSL's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CSL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $258 | -34% |
| Forward | 17x | $393 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $351 | -11% |
| Current | 22x | $393 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $459 | +17% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CSL has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CSL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CSL, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over CSL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CSL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $23.69 | +34% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.70 | -0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.44 | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.02 | -37% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.12 | -38% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.82 | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.09 | -36% |
| Q1 2025 | $27.05 | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $27.82 | +83% |
CSL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.70 over the past year, against $28.30 in mid-2024.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CSL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | -4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -0.4% |
CSL's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $1.5B last quarter, up 8.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -3.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | -2.5 points |
CSL's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 1.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over CSL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $277.3M | -30% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.1M | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | -$73M | -$45.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $346.1M | +3.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $393.4M | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $258.3M | +63% |
| Q1 2025 | -$27.2M | -121% |
| Q4 2024 | $334M | -5.4% |
CSL still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $751M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.2% | -900K shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -3.3M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -10.5M shares |
| 5 years | -25% | -13.4M shares |
| Available history | -31% | -17.9M shares |
CSL has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350M |
| Q2 2026 | $250M |
| Q1 2026 | $250M |
| Q4 2025 | $300M |
| Q3 2025 | $300M |
| Q2 2025 | $300M |
| Q1 2025 | $400M |
| Q4 2024 | $419.8M |
CSL spent $1.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 19% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CSL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
CSL's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.1 | Neutral |
CSL's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CSL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 24x | 7.7% below |
| PE % | 67 | 58 | 9 pts above |
CSL has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $350.0 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $351.1 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $352.1 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $357.0 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $341.9 | 15% above |
CSL has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $163.0 | $157.4 | -3.5% |
| 2021 | $157.4 | $240.8 | +53% |
| 2022 | $240.8 | $237.9 | -1.2% |
| 2023 | $237.9 | $312.4 | +31% |
| 2024 | $312.4 | $372.0 | +19% |
| 2025 | $372.0 | $330.3 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $330.3 | $392.6 | +19% |
CSL has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.