CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CRS
Carpenter Technology Corporation
CRS has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CRS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CRS's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over CRS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CRS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $222 | -26% |
| Forward | 22x | $300 | — |
| Current | 26x | $300 | — |
| Fair | 38x | $427 | +43% |
| Expensive | 50x | $572 | +91% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CRS's PE is in its cheap range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 22x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CRS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CRS, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CRS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.93 | +23% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.34 | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.52 | +42% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.50 | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.61 | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.18 | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.42 | +101% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.06 | +169% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.30 | +84% |
CRS has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CRS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $798.2M | +8.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $851M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $811.5M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $728M | +7.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $733.7M | +2.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $755.6M | -5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $727M | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $676.9M | +8.4% |
CRS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $798M last quarter, up 8.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | +4.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | +4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +5.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +7.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +6.4 points |
CRS has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CRS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$24.9M | -$21.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $155M | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $124.8M | +267% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.9M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.4M | -126% |
| Q2 2025 | $200.1M | +41% |
| Q1 2025 | $34M | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $38.6M | +$49.4M |
CRS usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$25M, but it generated $341M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CRS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CRS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -200K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -400K shares |
| 3 years | +0.2% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | +3.1% | +1.5M shares |
| Available history | +3.1% | +1.5M shares |
CRS has 50M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago, with $264M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $133.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $45.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $52.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $32.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $49.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $24.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $37.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $8.2M |
CRS spent $264M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 122% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CRS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CRS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
CRS's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CRS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.9 | Oversold |
CRS's weekly RSI is 32 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CRS on valuation relative to its sector.
CRS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CRS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 24x | 9.8% above |
| PE % | 22 | 58 | 36 pts below |
CRS is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over CRS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CRS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.7 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $448.1 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $420.4 | 29% below |
| 100 week MA | $326.6 | 8.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $206.4 | 45% above |
CRS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 45% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CRS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CRS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.3 | $28.6 | -43% |
| 2021 | $28.6 | $29.0 | +1.2% |
| 2022 | $29.0 | $37.8 | +30% |
| 2023 | $37.8 | $70.8 | +87% |
| 2024 | $70.8 | $170.7 | +141% |
| 2025 | $170.7 | $334.4 | +96% |
| 2026 YTD | $334.4 | $299.6 | -10% |
CRS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +141% in 2024 to −43% in 2020. It's down 10% so far in 2026.