CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CNH overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
CNH
CNH Industrial N.V.
CNH's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
CNH's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over CNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.9x | $1.52 | -87% |
| Fair | 11x | $2.37 | -80% |
| Forward | 21x | $11.97 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $5.49 | -54% |
| Current | 54x | $11.97 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CNH's PE is in its expensive range at 54x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over CNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
CNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over CNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.56 | +153% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.22 | -49% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.26 | -57% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.32 | -59% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.41 | -59% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.43 | -68% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.61 | -60% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.78 | -55% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.99 | -44% |
CNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.22 over the past year, against $1.76 in late 2023.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B | -1% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +5.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.4B | -5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.7B | -14% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.8B | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.9B | -28% |
CNH's revenue fell from its 2021 peak and has held roughly level since: $4.4B last quarter, down 1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.2% | +4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | -3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6% | -2.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | -7.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8% | -3.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -5.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.9% | -3.6 points |
CNH's operating margin was 5.2% last quarter, up 4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $686M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $145M | -81% |
| Q1 2026 | $35M | -78% |
| Q4 2025 | $945M | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | $659M | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $772M | +104% |
| Q1 2025 | $162M | +$1.1B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +12% |
CNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $1.8B over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -14M shares |
| 3 years | -8.3% | -112M shares |
| 5 years | -9% | -122M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -186M shares |
CNH has 1.2B diluted shares, down 1.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $20M |
| Q1 2022 | $20M |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
CNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 5.4x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 5.0x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 7.0x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2021 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2021 | 5.7x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 11.0x | High |
| Q3 2020 | 7.6x | High |
CNH's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.0 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.1 | Neutral |
CNH's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CNH on valuation relative to its sector.
CNH PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 54x | 24x | 126% above |
| PE % | 96 | 58 | 38 pts above |
CNH is trading at 54x earnings, a 126% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.0 | 0.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $11.8 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.2 | 7.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.5 | 3.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $12.0 | 0.2% below |
CNH has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.1 | $12.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $12.8 | $18.9 | +48% |
| 2022 | $18.9 | $16.2 | -15% |
| 2023 | $16.2 | $12.2 | -25% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $11.3 | -7.3% |
| 2025 | $11.3 | $9.44 | -16% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.44 | $12.0 | +27% |
CNH has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.