CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CHRW overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
CHRW offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CHRW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
CHRW's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CHRW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $85.25 | -37% |
| Forward | 18x | $134 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $132 | -1.6% |
| Current | 24x | $134 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $188 | +40% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CHRW has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
CHRW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CHRW, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CHRW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.30 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.57 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.24 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.94 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.83 | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.94 | +70% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.40 | +58% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.19 | +65% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.86 | +42% |
CHRW has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CHRW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.4B | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.9B | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $4B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9B | -6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.1B | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.1B | -7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $4B | -8.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.2B | -0.9% |
CHRW's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $5.4B last quarter, up 30% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.2% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.4% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.3% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.4% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.4% | +1.8 points |
CHRW's operating margin was 5.1% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CHRW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $120.5M | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.9M | -86% |
| Q1 2026 | $66M | -36% |
| Q4 2025 | $302.4M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $269.5M | +161% |
| Q2 2025 | $219.8M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $103.2M | +$145.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $265.3M | +514% |
CHRW has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CHRW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -2.6M shares |
| 3 years | -0.9% | -1M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -14.7M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -17.9M shares |
CHRW has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $207.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $219.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $212.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $114.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $111.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $47.7M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
CHRW spent $754M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CHRW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CHRW's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CHRW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.4 | Oversold |
CHRW's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on valuation relative to its sector.
CHRW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CHRW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 0.2% above |
| PE % | 51 | 58 | 7 pts below |
CHRW is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CHRW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $139.0 | 3.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $154.1 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $166.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $139.0 | 3.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $115.3 | 17% above |
CHRW has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 17% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CHRW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CHRW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $77.9 | $94.7 | +21% |
| 2021 | $94.7 | $102.5 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $102.5 | $93.1 | -9.1% |
| 2023 | $93.1 | $86.4 | -7.2% |
| 2024 | $86.4 | $103.9 | +20% |
| 2025 | $103.9 | $164.6 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $164.6 | $134.4 | -18% |
CHRW has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 18% so far in 2026.