CASK

MGP Ingredients, Inc.

45
Fundamentals28/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

CASK's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

CELH

Celsius Holdings, Inc.

72
Fundamentals87/ 100
Valuation70/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

CELH has the edge over CASK overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.

CASK Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Weak
Under pressure
Weak

CASK's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently under pressure.

CELH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Stable
Strong

CELH's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.

CASK PE Valuation

CASK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

CELH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE318x636x954x1272x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE318x636x954x1272x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward21x$31.89—
Current35x$31.89—
Cheap40x$35.95+13%
Fair141x$127+299%
Expensive650x$585+1735%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

CELH's PE is in its cheap range at 35x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.

CASK Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Stable
Strongly improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect CASK's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

CELH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Low

CELH has the edge over CASK on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

CASK Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$23.68
Downside-28%$12.25

Calculated from the latest close: $17.00 on Nov 12.

CASK trails CELH on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

CELH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+69%$54.01
Downside-25%$23.76

Calculated from the latest close: $31.89 on Nov 12.

CELH has a better modeled risk to reward balance than CASK, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

CASK Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $4.80Q1 2024: $4.33Q2 2024: $4.32Q3 2024: $4.81Q4 2024: $1.56Q1 2025: $0.50Q2 2025: $-0.26Q3 2025: $-0.62Q4 2025: $-4.99Q1 2026: $-11.15Q2 2026: $-11.27Q3 2026: $-11.66Forward: $1.72
Q4 2023: $4.80Q1 2024: $4.33Q2 2024: $4.32Q3 2024: $4.81Q4 2024: $1.56Q1 2025: $0.50Q2 2025: $-0.26Q3 2025: $-0.62Q4 2025: $-4.99Q1 2026: $-11.15Q2 2026: $-11.27Q3 2026: $-11.66Forward: $1.72
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.72—
Q3 2026-$11.66-$11.04
Q2 2026-$11.27-$11.01
Q1 2026-$11.15-2330%
Q4 2025-$4.99-420%
Q3 2025-$0.62-113%
Q2 2025-$0.26-106%
Q1 2025$0.50-88%
Q4 2024$1.56-68%

CASK lost $11.66 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last eight quarters.

CELH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.77Q1 2024: $0.91Q2 2024: $1.01Q3 2024: $0.72Q4 2024: $0.45Q1 2025: $0.33Q2 2025: $0.38Q3 2025: $0.11Q4 2025: $0.25Q1 2026: $0.43Q2 2026: $0.24Q3 2026: $0.90Forward: $1.53
Q4 2023: $0.77Q1 2024: $0.91Q2 2024: $1.01Q3 2024: $0.72Q4 2024: $0.45Q1 2025: $0.33Q2 2025: $0.38Q3 2025: $0.11Q4 2025: $0.25Q1 2026: $0.43Q2 2026: $0.24Q3 2026: $0.90Forward: $1.53
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.53+70%
Q3 2026$0.90+718%
Q2 2026$0.24-37%
Q1 2026$0.43+30%
Q4 2025$0.25-44%
Q3 2025$0.11-85%
Q2 2025$0.38-62%
Q1 2025$0.33-64%
Q4 2024$0.45-42%

CELH has the edge over CASK on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

CASK Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $215MQ1 2024: $171MQ2 2024: $191MQ3 2024: $161MQ4 2024: $181MQ1 2025: $122MQ2 2025: $145MQ3 2025: $131MQ4 2025: $138MQ1 2026: $106MQ2 2026: $124MQ3 2026: $118M
Q4 2023: $215MQ1 2024: $171MQ2 2024: $191MQ3 2024: $161MQ4 2024: $181MQ1 2025: $122MQ2 2025: $145MQ3 2025: $131MQ4 2025: $138MQ1 2026: $106MQ2 2026: $124MQ3 2026: $118M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$117.9M-9.9%
Q2 2026$124.4M-15%
Q1 2026$106.4M-13%
Q4 2025$138.3M-23%
Q3 2025$130.9M-19%
Q2 2025$145.5M-24%
Q1 2025$121.7M-29%
Q4 2024$180.8M-16%

CASK's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $118M last quarter, down 9.9% from the same quarter a year ago.

CELH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $347MQ1 2024: $356MQ2 2024: $402MQ3 2024: $266MQ4 2024: $332MQ1 2025: $329MQ2 2025: $739MQ3 2025: $725MQ4 2025: $722MQ1 2026: $783MQ2 2026: $818MQ3 2026: $847M
Q4 2023: $347MQ1 2024: $356MQ2 2024: $402MQ3 2024: $266MQ4 2024: $332MQ1 2025: $329MQ2 2025: $739MQ3 2025: $725MQ4 2025: $722MQ1 2026: $783MQ2 2026: $818MQ3 2026: $847M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$847.2M+17%
Q2 2026$817.9M+11%
Q1 2026$782.6M+138%
Q4 2025$721.6M+117%
Q3 2025$725.1M+173%
Q2 2025$739.3M+84%
Q1 2025$329.3M-7.4%
Q4 2024$332.2M-4.4%

CELH has the edge over CASK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

CASK Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $22MQ1 2024: −$2MQ2 2024: −$1MQ3 2024: $24MQ4 2024: $10MQ1 2025: $25MQ2 2025: −$557,000Q3 2025: $28MQ4 2025: $24MQ1 2026: $1MQ2 2026: −$52MQ3 2026: $27M
Q4 2023: $22MQ1 2024: −$2MQ2 2024: −$1MQ3 2024: $24MQ4 2024: $10MQ1 2025: $25MQ2 2025: −$557,000Q3 2025: $28MQ4 2025: $24MQ1 2026: $1MQ2 2026: −$52MQ3 2026: $27M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$27.2M-1.3%
Q2 2026-$52.2M-$51.6M
Q1 2026$1.2M-95%
Q4 2025$24.3M+133%
Q3 2025$27.6M+13%
Q2 2025-$557K+$855K
Q1 2025$24.8M+$27.2M
Q4 2024$10.4M-53%

CASK generated $527,000 in free cash flow over the past year, down 99% from the year before.

CELH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $426,000Q1 2024: $130MQ2 2024: $30MQ3 2024: $9MQ4 2024: $70MQ1 2025: $96MQ2 2025: $35MQ3 2025: $321MQ4 2025: −$130MQ1 2026: $66MQ2 2026: $205MQ3 2026: $128M
Q4 2023: $426,000Q1 2024: $130MQ2 2024: $30MQ3 2024: $9MQ4 2024: $70MQ1 2025: $96MQ2 2025: $35MQ3 2025: $321MQ4 2025: −$130MQ1 2026: $66MQ2 2026: $205MQ3 2026: $128M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$127.7M-60%
Q2 2026$205.5M+479%
Q1 2026$65.8M-32%
Q4 2025-$130M-285%
Q3 2025$321.5M+3599%
Q2 2025$35.5M+17%
Q1 2025$96.4M-26%
Q4 2024$70.3M+16394%

CELH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $269M over the past year.

CASK Total Shares

Q4 2023: 22MQ1 2024: 22MQ2 2024: 22MQ3 2024: 22MQ4 2024: 22MQ1 2025: 21MQ2 2025: 21MQ3 2025: 21MQ4 2025: 21MQ1 2026: 21MQ2 2026: 21MQ3 2026: 21M
Q4 2023: 22MQ1 2024: 22MQ2 2024: 22MQ3 2024: 22MQ4 2024: 22MQ1 2025: 21MQ2 2025: 21MQ3 2025: 21MQ4 2025: 21MQ1 2026: 21MQ2 2026: 21MQ3 2026: 21M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.1%+24.9K shares
1 year+0.4%+84.6K shares
3 years-4.1%-924K shares
5 years-2.4%-523K shares
Available history+26%+4.4M shares

CASK has 21M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

CELH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 237MQ1 2024: 238MQ2 2024: 238MQ3 2024: 234MQ4 2024: 237MQ1 2025: 237MQ2 2025: 260MQ3 2025: 258MQ4 2025: 255MQ1 2026: 260MQ2 2026: 257MQ3 2026: 255M
Q4 2023: 237MQ1 2024: 238MQ2 2024: 238MQ3 2024: 234MQ4 2024: 237MQ1 2025: 237MQ2 2025: 260MQ3 2025: 258MQ4 2025: 255MQ1 2026: 260MQ2 2026: 257MQ3 2026: 255M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.8%-2M shares
1 year-1.1%-2.9M shares
3 years+7.4%+17.6M shares
5 years+8.3%+19.5M shares
Available history+32%+62.4M shares

CELH has the edge over CASK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

CASK Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.6xQ1 2024: 1.8xQ2 2024: 1.8xQ3 2024: 1.6xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 4.1xQ2 2025: 6.3xQ3 2025: 7.6x
Q4 2023: 1.6xQ1 2024: 1.8xQ2 2024: 1.8xQ3 2024: 1.6xQ4 2024: 3.1xQ1 2025: 4.1xQ2 2025: 6.3xQ3 2025: 7.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20257.6xHigh
Q2 20256.3xHigh
Q1 20254.1xHigh
Q4 20243.1xElevated
Q3 20241.6xHealthy
Q2 20241.8xHealthy
Q1 20241.8xHealthy
Q4 20231.6xHealthy

CASK's net debt is about 7.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.6 years a year ago.

CELH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -2.8xQ1 2024: -2.9xQ2 2024: -2.7xQ3 2024: -3.8xQ4 2024: -5.5xQ1 2025: -7.3xQ2 2025: 1.4xQ3 2025: 0.5xQ4 2025: 1.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.2xQ3 2026: -0.1x
Q4 2023: -2.8xQ1 2024: -2.9xQ2 2024: -2.7xQ3 2024: -3.8xQ4 2024: -5.5xQ1 2025: -7.3xQ2 2025: 1.4xQ3 2025: 0.5xQ4 2025: 1.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.2xQ3 2026: -0.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.1xNet Cash
Q2 20260.2xVery low
Q1 20260.5xVery low
Q4 20251.6xHealthy
Q3 20250.5xVery low
Q2 20251.4xHealthy
Q1 2025-7.3xNet Cash
Q4 2024-5.5xNet Cash

CELH has more cash than debt.

CASK Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI50.2Neutral
Stochastic72.8Neutral

CASK's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).

CELH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI51.3Neutral
Stochastic56.8Neutral

CELH's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).

CASK PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

MetricCASKSector medianRelative
PEN/A19x—

CASK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

CELH PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

MetricCELHSector medianRelative
PE35x19x82% above
PE %11187 pts below

CELH is trading at 35x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.

CASK Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$15.311% above
20 week MA$16.24.7% above
50 week MA$19.111% below
100 week MA$24.531% below
200 week MA$56.870% below

CASK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 70% below its 200-week average.

CELH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$29.19.4% above
20 week MA$29.67.8% above
50 week MA$36.112% below
100 week MA$38.818% below
200 week MA$44.629% below

CELH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 29% below its 200-week average.

CASK Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$48.9$47.4-3.1%
2021$47.4$86.8+83%
2022$86.8$109.4+26%
2023$109.4$98.5-10%
2024$98.5$39.5-60%
2025$39.5$24.2-39%
2026 YTD$24.2$17.0-30%

CASK has the edge over CELH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

CELH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$1.58$14.7+832%
2021$14.7$24.9+69%
2022$24.9$35.6+43%
2023$35.6$54.5+53%
2024$54.5$26.5-51%
2025$26.5$45.6+72%
2026 YTD$45.6$31.9-30%

CELH's yearly returns have swung widely, from +832% in 2020 to −51% in 2024. It's down 30% so far in 2026.

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