BSBR

Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.

49
Fundamentals70/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential56/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BSBR offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS has the edge over BSBR overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.

BSBR Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
N/A
N/A

BSBR's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BSBR.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

BSBR PE Valuation

BSBR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189—
Current15x$189—
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

BSBR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Stable
Stable
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect BSBR's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over BSBR on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

BSBR Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+30%$6.54
Downside-23%$3.85

Calculated from the latest close: $5.02 on Nov 12.

BSBR trails MS on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

MS has a better modeled risk to reward balance than BSBR, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

BSBR Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.23Q1 2024: $0.23Q2 2024: $0.27Q3 2024: $0.30Q4 2024: $0.16Q1 2025: $0.16Q2 2025: $0.12Q3 2025: $0.51
Q4 2023: $0.23Q1 2024: $0.23Q2 2024: $0.27Q3 2024: $0.30Q4 2024: $0.16Q1 2025: $0.16Q2 2025: $0.12Q3 2025: $0.51
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2025$0.51+70%
Q2 2025$0.12-56%
Q1 2025$0.16-30%
Q4 2024$0.16-30%
Q3 2024$0.30+20%
Q2 2024$0.27+3.8%
Q1 2024$0.23-28%
Q4 2023$0.23-32%

BSBR has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 70% for BSBR versus MS up 29%.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.

BSBR Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $5.7BQ1 2024: $5.5BQ2 2024: $5.2BQ3 2024: $6BQ4 2024: $6.3BQ1 2025: $6.4BQ2 2025: $6.2BQ3 2025: $42.9BQ3 2025: --Q4 2025: $7.6BQ1 2026: $6.9BQ2 2026: $7B
Q4 2023: $5.7BQ1 2024: $5.5BQ2 2024: $5.2BQ3 2024: $6BQ4 2024: $6.3BQ1 2025: $6.4BQ2 2025: $6.2BQ3 2025: $42.9BQ3 2025: --Q4 2025: $7.6BQ1 2026: $6.9BQ2 2026: $7B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$7B+13%
Q1 2026$6.9B+6.7%
Q4 2025$7.6B+20%
Q3 2025$42.9B+611%
Q2 2025$6.2B+18%
Q1 2025$6.4B+17%
Q4 2024$6.3B+11%
Q3 2024$6B+9.4%

BSBR's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $7B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS has the edge over BSBR on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

BSBR Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$2.4BQ1 2024: −$3.9BQ2 2024: $2.4BQ3 2024: $5BQ4 2024: −$7.7BQ1 2025: $5.8BQ2 2025: −$2.1BQ3 2025: --Q3 2025: $444MQ4 2025: −$3.8BQ1 2026: $7BQ2 2026: $2.9B
Q4 2023: −$2.4BQ1 2024: −$3.9BQ2 2024: $2.4BQ3 2024: $5BQ4 2024: −$7.7BQ1 2025: $5.8BQ2 2025: −$2.1BQ3 2025: --Q3 2025: $444MQ4 2025: −$3.8BQ1 2026: $7BQ2 2026: $2.9B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$2.9B+$5B
Q1 2026$7B+21%
Q4 2025-$3.8B+$3.9B
Q3 2025$444.5M-91%
Q2 2025-$2.1B-190%
Q1 2025$5.8B+$9.7B
Q4 2024-$7.7B-$5.3B
Q3 2024$5B-53%

BSBR has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

BSBR Total Shares

Q4 2023: 7.4BQ1 2024: 7.4BQ2 2024: 7.5BQ3 2024: 7.5BQ4 2024: 7.5BQ1 2025: 7.5BQ2 2025: 7.5BQ3 2025: 7.5BQ4 2025: 7.5BQ1 2026: 7.5BQ2 2026: 7.5B
Q4 2023: 7.4BQ1 2024: 7.4BQ2 2024: 7.5BQ3 2024: 7.5BQ4 2024: 7.5BQ1 2025: 7.5BQ2 2025: 7.5BQ3 2025: 7.5BQ4 2025: 7.5BQ1 2026: 7.5BQ2 2026: 7.5B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-2.2M shares
1 year+0.2%+16.6M shares
3 years+0.6%+43.1M shares
5 years0%-2.8M shares
Available history0%-2.8M shares

BSBR has 7.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over BSBR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

BSBR Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -4.0xQ1 2024: 4.1xQ2 2024: 3.1xQ3 2024: 1.4xQ4 2024: -3.2xQ1 2025: -3.6xQ2 2025: -2.2xQ3 2025: 24.0x
Q4 2023: -4.0xQ1 2024: 4.1xQ2 2024: 3.1xQ3 2024: 1.4xQ4 2024: -3.2xQ1 2025: -3.6xQ2 2025: -2.2xQ3 2025: 24.0x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 202524.0xHigh
Q2 2025-2.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-3.6xNet Cash
Q4 2024-3.2xNet Cash
Q3 20241.4xHealthy
Q2 20243.1xElevated
Q1 20244.1xHigh
Q4 2023-4.0xNet Cash

BSBR's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BSBR.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

BSBR Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI43.0Neutral
Stochastic18.6Oversold

BSBR's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

BSBR PE vs Financial Services Sector

BSBR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

BSBR Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$5.274.7% below
20 week MA$5.498.6% below
50 week MA$5.7913% below
100 week MA$5.407% below
200 week MA$5.468.1% below

BSBR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 8.1% below its 200-week average.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over BSBR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

BSBR Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.4$8.29-27%
2021$8.29$5.36-35%
2022$5.36$5.47+2.1%
2023$5.47$6.55+20%
2024$6.55$3.87-41%
2025$3.87$6.16+59%
2026 YTD$6.16$5.02-19%

BSBR has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over BSBR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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