BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
BOOT has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BOOT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
BOOT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
BOOT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $108 | -19% |
| Forward | 15x | $134 | — |
| Current | 16x | $134 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $174 | +30% |
| Expensive | 29x | $240 | +80% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BOOT's PE is in its fair range at 16x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over BOOT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BOOT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BOOT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.00 | +8.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.26 | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.90 | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.35 | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.14 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.78 | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.36 | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.88 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.60 | +4.3% |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
BOOT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $581.8M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $593.5M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $538.8M | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $705.6M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $505.4M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $504.1M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $453.7M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $608.2M | +17% |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +1.9 points |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
BOOT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$6.7M | +$10.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $32.8M | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | -$46.5M | +$36.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $148M | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | -$17.5M | +$28.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $42.4M | +198% |
| Q1 2025 | -$83.1M | -$51.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $114.2M | +67% |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
BOOT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -189K shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -338K shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -215K shares |
| 5 years | +0.2% | +56K shares |
| Available history | +3.6% | +1M shares |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $25M |
| Q1 2026 | $12.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $12.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $12.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $12.5M |
BOOT spent $85M buying back its own shares over the past year.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
BOOT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
BOOT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.4 | Neutral |
BOOT's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
BOOT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BOOT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 10% below |
| PE % | 34 | 47 | 13 pts below |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BOOT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $124.9 | 7.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $141.9 | 5.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $162.1 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $157.8 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $128.6 | 4% above |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
BOOT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.3 | $40.5 | -6.4% |
| 2021 | $40.5 | $116.8 | +189% |
| 2022 | $116.8 | $61.7 | -47% |
| 2023 | $61.7 | $76.8 | +24% |
| 2024 | $76.8 | $156.7 | +104% |
| 2025 | $156.7 | $186.0 | +19% |
| 2026 YTD | $186.0 | $133.7 | -28% |
BOOT has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.