BLK
BlackRock, Inc.
BLK has the edge over MSDL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
MSDL has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BLK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BLK's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BLK.
MSDL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSDL's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSDL.
BLK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $848 | -30% |
| Fair | 22x | $973 | -20% |
| Expensive | 26x | $1,149 | -5.5% |
| Current | 28x | $1,217 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BLK has the edge over MSDL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSDL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.5x | $13.83 | — |
| Cheap | 7.6x | $0.38 | -97% |
| Fair | 9x | $0.45 | -97% |
| Expensive | 15x | $0.76 | -94% |
| Current | 277x | $13.83 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSDL's PE is in its expensive range at 277x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.5x, in its cheap range.
BLK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for BLK to show an outlook.
MSDL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MSDL's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
BLK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43.87 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $41.73 | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.73 | -4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $35.31 | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $39.42 | -2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $41.89 | +4% |
| Q1 2025 | $41.69 | +5.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.53 | +16% |
BLK has the edge over MSDL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSDL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.85 | +3610% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.05 | -97% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.69 | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.01 | -54% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.40 | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.65 | -35% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.18 | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.43 | -22% |
MSDL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.05 over the past year, against $3.11 in late 2023.
BLK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.8B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1B | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.7B | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $7B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.5B | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.3B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.7B | +23% |
MSDL has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 19% for BLK versus up 26% for MSDL.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 30% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | +9.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | -13 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | -8.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +2.3 points |
BLK's operating margin was 30% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MSDL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | $40.2M | +26% |
| Q3 2022 | $24.3M | -8.5% |
| Q2 2022 | $6.6M | -72% |
| Q1 2022 | $29.1M | +72% |
| Q4 2021 | $31.9M | +179% |
| Q3 2021 | $26.6M | +312% |
| Q2 2021 | $23.3M | +343% |
| Q1 2021 | $16.9M | +1731% |
MSDL's revenue has held roughly level: $40M last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 51% | -32 points |
| Q3 2022 | 39% | -45 points |
| Q2 2022 | -49% | -135 points |
| Q1 2022 | 76% | -11 points |
| Q4 2021 | 83% | -20 points |
| Q3 2021 | 84% | -34 points |
| Q2 2021 | 85% | -28 points |
| Q1 2021 | 87% | +440 points |
MSDL's operating margin was 51% last quarter, down 32 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BLK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +95% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | +$120M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.2B | -$734M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +35% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.4B | +47% |
BLK's free cash flow was $4.8B over the past year, up 22% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BLK.
MSDL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $128.7M | +230% |
| Q2 2026 | $103.8M | +332% |
| Q1 2026 | $86.3M | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | $53.8M | +$149.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $39M | +$156M |
| Q2 2025 | $24M | +$130.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $34.1M | +$87.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$96.2M | -519% |
MSDL has the edge over BLK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BLK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -148K shares |
| 1 year | -0.4% | -677K shares |
| 3 years | +9.3% | +14M shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +9.6M shares |
| Available history | +4.4% | +7M shares |
BLK has 165M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $396M |
| Q1 2025 | $657M |
| Q4 2024 | $386M |
| Q2 2024 | $519M |
| Q1 2024 | $634M |
| Q4 2023 | $384M |
| Q3 2023 | $396M |
| Q2 2023 | $383M |
MSDL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -724K shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -2.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -4.8% | -4.2M shares |
| Available history | +2618% | +80.9M shares |
MSDL has the edge over BLK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $12.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $20.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $9.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $10.1M |
MSDL spent $49M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
BLK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
BLK has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BLK.
MSDL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 29.5x | High |
| Q3 2022 | 26.4x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 20.6x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 14.5x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 14.1x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 14.6x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 12.8x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 13.2x | High |
MSDL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 14 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSDL.
BLK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 79.0 | Neutral |
BLK's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
MSDL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.8 | Neutral |
MSDL's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
BLK PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BLK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 113% above |
| PE % | 97 | 63 | 34 pts above |
BLK has the edge over MSDL on valuation relative to its sector.
MSDL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSDL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 277x | 13x | 2,024% above |
| PE % | 100 | 36 | 64 pts above |
MSDL is trading at 277x earnings, a 2024% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
BLK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,128.0 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,108.9 | 9.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,071.6 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $1,051.1 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $914.1 | 33% above |
BLK has stronger trend alignment. BLK is above 5 of 5 weekly averages versus MSDL above 1 of 4.
MSDL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.6 | 1.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.6 | 4.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.2 | 8.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.1 | 19% below |
MSDL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 19% below its 100-week average.
BLK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $503.0 | $707.2 | +41% |
| 2021 | $707.2 | $913.9 | +29% |
| 2022 | $913.9 | $703.9 | -23% |
| 2023 | $703.9 | $811.8 | +15% |
| 2024 | $811.8 | $1,044.2 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1,044.2 | $1,088.1 | +4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,088.1 | $1,216.6 | +12% |
BLK has the edge over MSDL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSDL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $20.5 | $21.4 | +4.4% |
| 2025 | $21.4 | $17.0 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.0 | $13.8 | -19% |
MSDL has finished lower in one of the last two years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.