BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation
BLBD has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BLBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
BLBD's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BLBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6.8x | $55.45 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $103 | +85% |
| Forward | 13x | $55.45 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $138 | +150% |
| Expensive | 39x | $320 | +476% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BLBD's PE is in its cheap range at 6.8x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 13x.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BLBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BLBD's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over BLBD on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
BLBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.42 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.22 | +136% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.96 | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.88 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.48 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.21 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.21 | +69% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.16 | +327% |
BLBD has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
BLBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $517.2M | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $352.6M | -1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $333.1M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $409.4M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $398M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $358.9M | +3.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $313.9M | -1.2% |
| Q3 2024 | $350.2M | +16% |
BLBD's revenue is growing: $517M last quarter, up 30% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 7.3% | -2.3 points |
BLBD has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over BLBD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BLBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $21.7M | -59% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.9M | +113% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.1M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $60.5M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.3M | +$55.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.7M | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.8M | +$24.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $50.2M | +49% |
BLBD has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
BLBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +8.4% | +2.7M shares |
| 1 year | +7.9% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +7.8% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +28% | +7.7M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +8.1M shares |
BLBD has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $198,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4M |
| Q3 2024 | $877,000 |
BLBD spent $8M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 52% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
BLBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BLBD has more cash than debt.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BLBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.2 | Oversold |
BLBD's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
BLBD PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BLBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.8x | 18x | 63% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
BLBD is trading at 6.8x earnings, a 63% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BLBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.9 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $63.9 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $61.2 | 9.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $52.7 | 5.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $42.1 | 32% above |
BLBD has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
BLBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.0 | $19.1 | -17% |
| 2021 | $19.1 | $14.7 | -23% |
| 2022 | $14.7 | $9.97 | -32% |
| 2023 | $9.97 | $27.0 | +170% |
| 2024 | $27.0 | $39.4 | +46% |
| 2025 | $39.4 | $50.7 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $50.7 | $55.5 | +9.3% |
BLBD has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.