BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation
BLBD has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
F
Ford Motor Company
F has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BLBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
BLBD's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
BLBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6.8x | $55.45 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $103 | +85% |
| Forward | 13x | $55.45 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $138 | +150% |
| Expensive | 39x | $320 | +476% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BLBD's PE is in its cheap range at 6.8x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 13x.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BLBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BLBD's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BLBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.42 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.22 | +136% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.96 | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.88 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.48 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.21 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.21 | +69% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.16 | +327% |
BLBD has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
BLBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $517.2M | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $352.6M | -1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $333.1M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $409.4M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $398M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $358.9M | +3.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $313.9M | -1.2% |
| Q3 2024 | $350.2M | +16% |
BLBD has the edge over F on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 7.3% | -2.3 points |
BLBD has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
BLBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $21.7M | -59% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.9M | +113% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.1M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $60.5M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.3M | +$55.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.7M | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.8M | +$24.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $50.2M | +49% |
BLBD has the edge over F on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $5.1B over the past year.
BLBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +8.4% | +2.7M shares |
| 1 year | +7.9% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +7.8% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +28% | +7.7M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +8.1M shares |
BLBD has 35M diluted shares, up 7.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $198,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4M |
| Q3 2024 | $877,000 |
BLBD spent $8M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 52% from the year before.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has the edge over BLBD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
BLBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BLBD has more cash than debt.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over BLBD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BLBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.2 | Oversold |
BLBD's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
BLBD PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BLBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.8x | 18x | 63% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
BLBD is trading at 6.8x earnings, a 63% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BLBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.9 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $63.9 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $61.2 | 9.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $52.7 | 5.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $42.1 | 32% above |
BLBD has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
BLBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.0 | $19.1 | -17% |
| 2021 | $19.1 | $14.7 | -23% |
| 2022 | $14.7 | $9.97 | -32% |
| 2023 | $9.97 | $27.0 | +170% |
| 2024 | $27.0 | $39.4 | +46% |
| 2025 | $39.4 | $50.7 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $50.7 | $55.5 | +9.3% |
BLBD has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.