BGC
BGC Group, Inc
BGC has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BGC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BGC's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BGC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
BGC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.2x | $11.14 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $10.67 | -4.2% |
| Current | 23x | $11.14 | — |
| Fair | 36x | $17.43 | +56% |
| Expensive | 68x | $33.15 | +198% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BGC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
BGC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BGC, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
BGC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.54 | +215% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.49 | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.41 | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.37 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.32 | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.29 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.26 | +117% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.25 | +257% |
BGC's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.49 over the past year, up 53% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over BGC on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
BGC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $832.6M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $845.5M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $955.5M | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $756.4M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $736.8M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $784M | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $664.2M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $572.3M | +11% |
BGC has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +7.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3% | -1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.6% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.8% | -1.4 points |
BGC's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 7.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over BGC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BGC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $205.9M | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $156.7M | +141% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.4M | +$19.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $175.1M | -29% |
| Q3 2025 | $137.2M | +74% |
| Q2 2025 | $65M | +$128.4M |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.4M | -118% |
| Q4 2024 | $245.6M | +46% |
BGC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BGC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | -0.4% | -2.1M shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -1.2M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -80.7M shares |
| Available history | +38% | +132M shares |
BGC has 476M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $121.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $112.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $68M |
| Q3 2025 | $41.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $148.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $50M |
BGC spent $304M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 15% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over BGC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
BGC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5x | Moderate |
BGC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BGC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.5 | Neutral |
BGC's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BGC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BGC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 13x | 75% above |
| PE % | 16 | 63 | 47 pts below |
BGC is trading at 23x earnings, a 75% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over BGC on valuation relative to its sector.
BGC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.4 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $11.5 | 3% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 4.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $10.0 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $8.45 | 32% above |
BGC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 32% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
BGC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.90 | $4.15 | -30% |
| 2021 | $4.15 | $4.62 | +11% |
| 2022 | $4.62 | $3.83 | -17% |
| 2023 | $3.83 | $7.22 | +89% |
| 2024 | $7.22 | $9.10 | +26% |
| 2025 | $9.10 | $9.09 | -0.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.09 | $11.1 | +23% |
BGC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.