BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BBAI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over BBAI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BBAI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
BBAI's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BBAI PE Valuation
BBAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
BBAI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BBAI's revenue to grow and its profitability to improve, with its earnings holding steady.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
BBAI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.37 | +$1.10 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.21 | +$1.28 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.87 | -$0.04 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.00 | +$0.25 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.47 | -$0.58 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.49 | -$0.68 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.83 | +$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.25 | -$0.85 |
BBAI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.37 per share over the past year, against $1.62 at its worst in late 2022.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
BBAI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43.6M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $36.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.4M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.3M | -38% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.1M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.5M | -18% |
| Q1 2025 | $34.8M | +4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $43.8M | +8% |
BBAI's revenue has held roughly level: $44M last quarter, up 31% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -229% | -163 points |
| Q2 2026 | -78% | +200 points |
| Q1 2026 | -70% | -9.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -295% | -276 points |
| Q3 2025 | -66% | -41 points |
| Q2 2025 | -278% | -236 points |
| Q1 2025 | -61% | +235 points |
| Q4 2024 | -19% | +2.6 points |
BBAI's operating margin was −229% last quarter, down 163 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BBAI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.8M | -$21K |
| Q2 2026 | -$22.5M | -$18.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.3M | -$11.6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$22.1M | -$7.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$9.8M | -$7.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.9M | +$3.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$6.7M | +$7.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$15M | -$14.9M |
BBAI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$73M over the past year, against −$35M the year before.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BBAI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +50% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +247% | +342M shares |
| 5 years | +4529% | +470M shares |
BBAI has 480M diluted shares, up 50% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $100.9M |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
BBAI Net Leverage
BBAI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
BBAI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.9 | Oversold |
BBAI's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
BBAI PE vs Technology Sector
BBAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
BBAI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.38 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.78 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.86 | 46% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.53 | 54% below |
| 200 week MA | $3.25 | 36% below |
BBAI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 36% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BBAI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.62 | $6.85 | -29% |
| 2022 | $6.85 | $0.73 | -89% |
| 2023 | $0.73 | $2.14 | +193% |
| 2024 | $2.14 | $4.21 | +97% |
| 2025 | $4.21 | $5.73 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.73 | $2.07 | -64% |
BBAI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +193% in 2023 to −89% in 2022. It's down 64% so far in 2026.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over BBAI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.