BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over TOL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TOL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
TOL's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over TOL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TOL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.9x | $73.71 | -50% |
| Fair | 9.3x | $116 | -21% |
| Forward | 11x | $148 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $151 | +2.3% |
| Current | 12x | $148 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TOL's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over TOL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
TOL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TOL, with profitability holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over TOL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TOL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.54 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.46 | -8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.22 | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.00 | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.56 | -9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.61 | -6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.48 | -7.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.53 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.03 | +21% |
TOL earned $12.46 per share over the past year, down 8.4% from the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over TOL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TOL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | -7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | -3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | +10% |
TOL's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $2.7B last quarter, down 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.2 points |
TOL has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
TOL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $219.6M | -36% |
| Q2 2026 | $110M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.6M | +$426.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $772.2M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $344.9M | +130% |
| Q2 2025 | $347.3M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$438.1M | -$117.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $664.3M | +16% |
TOL has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
TOL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -4.7M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -16.7M shares |
| 5 years | -25% | -31.2M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -49.1M shares |
TOL has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $204.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $179.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $246.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $199.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $181.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $203.5M |
TOL spent $682M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over TOL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TOL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
TOL's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
TOL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.7 | Neutral |
TOL's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
TOL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TOL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 18x | 34% below |
| PE % | 82 | 47 | 35 pts above |
TOL has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
TOL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.9 | 5% above |
| 20 week MA | $144.3 | 2.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $144.0 | 2.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $132.7 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.9 | 27% above |
TOL has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
TOL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.9 | $45.6 | +14% |
| 2021 | $45.6 | $70.5 | +54% |
| 2022 | $70.5 | $50.8 | -28% |
| 2023 | $50.8 | $102.8 | +102% |
| 2024 | $102.8 | $126.5 | +23% |
| 2025 | $126.5 | $139.1 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.1 | $148.0 | +6.4% |
TOL has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.