BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over THO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
THO
Thor Industries, Inc.
THO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
THO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
THO's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over THO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
THO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.6x | $18.83 | -76% |
| Fair | 19x | $63.46 | -18% |
| Forward | 20x | $77.29 | — |
| Expensive | 23x | $78.24 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $77.29 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
THO's PE is in its expensive range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over THO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
THO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for THO, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over THO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
THO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.91 | +16% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.38 | -30% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.96 | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.63 | +49% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.28 | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.84 | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.18 | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.78 | -25% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.92 | -28% |
THO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $3.38 over the past year, against $20.59 in mid-2022.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over THO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over THO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
THO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.3B | -8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.8B | -3.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | -8.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -14% |
THO's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $2.3B last quarter, down 8.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.2% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.7% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.4% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.1% | -2.9 points |
THO's operating margin was 2.2% last quarter, down 3.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
THO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $189.9M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $196M | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | -$145.2M | -2588% |
| Q4 2025 | -$74.8M | -1270% |
| Q3 2025 | $221.6M | -26% |
| Q2 2025 | $222.5M | -1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.8M | +$146.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $6.4M | -67% |
THO has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
THO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +163K shares |
| 1 year | -1.6% | -838K shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -1.3M shares |
| 5 years | -5.6% | -3.1M shares |
| Available history | -4.8% | -2.7M shares |
THO has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $50.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $25.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $5M |
| Q3 2025 | $50.9M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
THO spent $115M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 119% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over THO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
THO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
THO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
THO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.0 | Neutral |
THO's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 65 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over THO on valuation relative to its sector.
THO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | THO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 18x | 27% above |
| PE % | 82 | 47 | 35 pts above |
THO is trading at 23x earnings, a 27% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
THO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $72.0 | 7.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $74.3 | 4% above |
| 50 week MA | $84.6 | 8.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $89.2 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $94.8 | 19% below |
THO has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
THO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.4 | $102.4 | +38% |
| 2021 | $102.4 | $100.9 | -1.5% |
| 2022 | $100.9 | $77.3 | -23% |
| 2023 | $77.3 | $118.3 | +53% |
| 2024 | $118.3 | $95.4 | -19% |
| 2025 | $95.4 | $106.2 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $106.2 | $77.3 | -27% |
THO has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.