BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
TCOM has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TCOM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
TCOM's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
TCOM PE Valuation
TCOM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over TCOM on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
TCOM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TCOM, with profitability holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
TCOM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $5.16 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.79 | +84% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.16 | +91% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.72 | +88% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.91 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.70 | +53% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.75 | +70% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.57 | +49% |
TCOM has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over TCOM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TCOM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.3B | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.4B | +16% |
TCOM has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -9.3% | -37 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | -1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 32% | +3.1 points |
TCOM's operating margin was −9.3% last quarter, down 37 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
TCOM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | +$2B |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | -100% |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2024 | $0 | -100% |
TCOM has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
TCOM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -7.2% | -49.3M shares |
| 1 year | -9.1% | -63.4M shares |
| 3 years | -5.9% | -39.6M shares |
| 5 years | -0.5% | -3.1M shares |
| Available history | +5.1% | +30.7M shares |
TCOM has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $659.7M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
TCOM spent $660M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TCOM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
TCOM has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
TCOM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 49.2 | Neutral |
TCOM's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 49 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
TCOM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TCOM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
TCOM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
TCOM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $40.4 | 6.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $42.2 | 2.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $50.7 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.1 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $50.6 | 15% below |
TCOM has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over TCOM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TCOM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.6 | $32.0 | -7.6% |
| 2021 | $32.0 | $23.8 | -26% |
| 2022 | $23.8 | $34.0 | +43% |
| 2023 | $34.0 | $36.0 | +5.9% |
| 2024 | $36.0 | $70.6 | +96% |
| 2025 | $70.6 | $72.5 | +2.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.5 | $43.2 | -40% |
TCOM is down 40% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.