BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over SW overall, supported by stronger valuation.
SW
Smurfit Westrock Plc
SW has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
SW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
SW's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over SW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9x | $7.99 | -82% |
| Forward | 15x | $43.18 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $14.37 | -67% |
| Expensive | 21x | $19.12 | -56% |
| Current | 49x | $43.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SW's PE is in its expensive range at 49x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SW, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 52% for BABA versus SW down 54%.
SW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.81 | +216% |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.93 | -147% |
| Q2 2024 | -$0.65 | -116% |
| Q1 2024 | $2.95 | -31% |
| Q4 2023 | $3.31 | -25% |
| Q3 2023 | $4.07 | -6.4% |
| Q2 2023 | $4.11 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2023 | $4.29 | +20% |
| Q4 2022 | $4.40 | +46% |
SW has returned to profit: it earned $0.89 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over SW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over SW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $8B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.7B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $8B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.7B | +154% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.5B | +162% |
| Q3 2024 | $7.7B | +150% |
SW's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $8.2B last quarter, up 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3% | -3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.6% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | -1 points |
SW's operating margin was 6% last quarter, down 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
SW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $360M | -31% |
| Q2 2026 | $300M | -2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | -$420M | -$178M |
| Q4 2025 | $612M | +189% |
| Q2 2025 | $307M | +$307M |
| Q1 2025 | -$242M | -$57.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $212M | -61% |
| Q2 2024 | $0 | -100% |
SW has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
SW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 3 years | +103% | +268M shares |
| 5 years | +105% | +270M shares |
| Available history | +121% | +289M shares |
SW has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $30M |
| Q4 2023 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2023 | $382,597 |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over SW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2023 | 1.7x | Healthy |
SW's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
SW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.9 | Neutral |
SW's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over SW on valuation relative to its sector.
SW PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49x | 18x | 169% above |
| PE % | 92 | 47 | 45 pts above |
SW is trading at 49x earnings, a 169% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
SW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $45.1 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.0 | 1.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $42.3 | 2.2% above |
SW has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
SW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $44.5 | +4.3% |
| 2021 | $44.5 | $43.0 | -3.3% |
| 2022 | $43.0 | $35.5 | -18% |
| 2023 | $35.5 | $41.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $41.5 | $54.4 | +31% |
| 2025 | $54.4 | $38.7 | -29% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.7 | $43.2 | +11% |
SW has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.