BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over SON overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
SON
Sonoco Products Company
SON has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
SON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
SON's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
SON PE Valuation
SON has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over SON on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
SON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SON's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over SON on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.61 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$2.30 | -137% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.29 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.20 | +562% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.07 | +510% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.30 | +116% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.58 | +50% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.54 | -61% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.65 | -66% |
SON has swung to a loss: it lost $2.30 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over SON on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over SON on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | +4.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | -17% |
SON's revenue has held roughly level: $2B last quarter, down 4.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -31% | -40 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.2% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.2% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.4% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4% | -12 points |
SON's operating margin was −31% last quarter, down 40 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
SON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $221.9M | -1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $236.9M | +140% |
| Q1 2026 | -$430M | -$129.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $322.3M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $225.6M | +220% |
| Q2 2025 | $98.6M | +516% |
| Q1 2025 | -$300.8M | -477% |
| Q4 2024 | $274.3M | +74% |
SON has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
SON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -279K shares |
| 1 year | -0.1% | -146K shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +590K shares |
| 5 years | +0.1% | +77K shares |
| Available history | -1.7% | -1.7M shares |
SON has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $181,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $57,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $7M |
| Q4 2025 | $350,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $4,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $3,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $10.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $74,000 |
SON spent $8M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 29% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over SON on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 6.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.4x | High |
SON's net debt is about 5.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.3 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
SON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.6 | Neutral |
SON's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
SON PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.9x | 18x | 56% below |
| PE % | 15 | 47 | 32 pts below |
SON has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
SON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $49.5 | 1.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $53.1 | 8.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $51.3 | 5% below |
| 100 week MA | $48.3 | 0.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $52.3 | 6.8% below |
SON has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
SON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $61.3 | $59.4 | -3.1% |
| 2021 | $59.4 | $55.5 | -6.6% |
| 2022 | $55.5 | $60.4 | +8.9% |
| 2023 | $60.4 | $55.9 | -7.5% |
| 2024 | $55.9 | $48.9 | -12% |
| 2025 | $48.9 | $43.5 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.5 | $48.7 | +12% |
SON has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.