BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over SHOE overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
SHOE
Shoe Station Group Inc.
SHOE's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
SHOE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
SHOE's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over SHOE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SHOE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.3x | $5.57 | -61% |
| Fair | 9.2x | $8.12 | -43% |
| Forward | 10x | $14.20 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $13.27 | -6.5% |
| Current | 16x | $14.20 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SHOE's PE is in its expensive range at 16x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over SHOE on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
SHOE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SHOE's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over SHOE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SHOE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.39 | +58% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.88 | -61% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.35 | -44% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.10 | -23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.27 | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.39 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.68 | 0% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.72 | -6.2% |
SHOE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.88 over the past year, against $5.42 in early 2022.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over SHOE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over SHOE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SHOE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $284.3M | -7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $270.7M | -2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $254.1M | -3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $297.2M | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $306.4M | -7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $277.7M | -7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $262.9M | -6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $306.9M | -4.1% |
SHOE's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $284M last quarter, down 7.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.7% | -5.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | -2.2% | -6.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.3% | -1.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.2% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.3% | -3.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.3% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8% | -0.7 points |
SHOE's operating margin was 2.7% last quarter, down 5.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
SHOE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.5M | +197% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.6M | +$35.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $27.7M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.7M | +138% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2M | -88% |
| Q2 2025 | -$23M | -435% |
| Q1 2025 | $36.2M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.3M | -76% |
SHOE has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
SHOE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -72K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -140K shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -95K shares |
| 5 years | -4.7% | -1.3M shares |
| Available history | -6.2% | -1.8M shares |
SHOE has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $7M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $5.4M |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SHOE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
SHOE has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
SHOE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.0 | Neutral |
SHOE's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
SHOE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SHOE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 10% below |
| PE % | 85 | 47 | 38 pts above |
SHOE has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
SHOE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.7 | 3.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.2 | 0.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $16.6 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $19.2 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $24.7 | 42% below |
SHOE has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
SHOE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.4 | $19.4 | +5.3% |
| 2021 | $19.4 | $39.3 | +102% |
| 2022 | $39.3 | $24.5 | -38% |
| 2023 | $24.5 | $30.2 | +23% |
| 2024 | $30.2 | $35.7 | +18% |
| 2025 | $35.7 | $18.1 | -49% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.1 | $14.2 | -21% |
SHOE has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.