BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.
RRGB has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
RRGB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure |
RRGB's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
RRGB PE Valuation
RRGB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over RRGB on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
RRGB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect RRGB's losses to shrink, with revenue declining.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over RRGB on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RRGB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$1.69 | +$1.74 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.50 | +$2.75 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.31 | +$3.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.26 | +$0.03 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.43 | -$0.82 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.25 | -$2.49 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.93 | -$3.59 |
| Q3 2024 | -$3.29 | -$0.03 |
RRGB is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.69 per share over the past year, against $19.29 at its worst in late 2020.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over RRGB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over RRGB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RRGB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $277.6M | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $378.3M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $269M | -5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $265.1M | -3.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $283.7M | -5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $392.4M | +1% |
| Q4 2024 | $285.2M | -7.7% |
| Q3 2024 | $274.6M | -1.1% |
RRGB's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $278M last quarter, down 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.5% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4.6% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5% | +5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -12% | -9.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | -4.7% | -4 points |
RRGB's operating margin was 2.3% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
RRGB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $268K | -96% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.3M | +$6.7M |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.1M | +$7.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $3.4M | +$8.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $7.6M | +39% |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.4M | +$29.5M |
| Q3 2024 | -$18M | -$5.8M |
RRGB has the edge over BABA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over RRGB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
RRGB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +21% | +3.8M shares |
| 1 year | +16% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +34% | +5.6M shares |
| 5 years | +40% | +6.2M shares |
| Available history | +69% | +8.9M shares |
RRGB has 22M diluted shares, up 16% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $5M |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over RRGB on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
RRGB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 10.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 32.5x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 5.1x | High |
RRGB's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
RRGB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.4 | Neutral |
RRGB's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
RRGB PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RRGB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
RRGB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.42 | 4.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $8.23 | 7.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $5.78 | 53% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.49 | 61% above |
| 200 week MA | $7.27 | 21% above |
RRGB has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
RRGB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.0 | $20.1 | -35% |
| 2021 | $20.1 | $17.2 | -15% |
| 2022 | $17.2 | $5.70 | -67% |
| 2023 | $5.70 | $12.5 | +119% |
| 2024 | $12.5 | $5.39 | -57% |
| 2025 | $5.39 | $4.31 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.31 | $8.83 | +105% |
RRGB has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.