BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

53
Fundamentals36/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BABA's fundamentals are weak: its operating margin fell 10 points to 4.2% and free cash flow turned negative, though revenue grew 4.3%. Its PE isn't a useful guide right now because of how its recent earnings were reported.

REF

Reformation Inc. (California)

There isn't enough reported data to score REF yet.

BABA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Weak
Healthy

BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

REF Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable

There isn't enough reported data to rate REF's fundamentals.

BABA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap16x$69.66-26%
Fair20x$86.59-8.2%
Current21x$94.36—
Expensive26x$115+22%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.

REF PE Valuation

REF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

REF Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for REF to show an outlook.

BABA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+33%$125.09
Downside-23%$72.35

Calculated from the latest close: $94.36 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare BABA and REF's risk to reward.

REF Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknown—
DownsideUnknown—

Calculated from the latest close: $18.13 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare BABA and REF's risk to reward.

BABA Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$4.42-52%
Q1 2026$6.57-18%
Q4 2025$5.79-22%
Q3 2025$7.85+49%
Q2 2025$9.27+116%
Q1 2025$8.06+71%
Q4 2024$7.47+24%
Q3 2024$5.26-35%

BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.

REF Earnings Per Share

REF and BABA do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$40.2B+8.3%
Q1 2026$36.5B+2.9%
Q4 2025$42.7B+1.7%
Q3 2025$37.2B+4.8%
Q2 2025$37.2B+1.8%
Q1 2025$35.5B+6.6%
Q4 2024$42B+7.6%
Q3 2024$35.5B+5.2%

BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.

REF Quarterly Revenue

Q1 2025: $86MQ2 2025: $125MQ1 2026: $112MQ2 2026: $155MQ3 2026: $174M
Q1 2025: $86MQ2 2025: $125MQ1 2026: $112MQ2 2026: $155MQ3 2026: $174M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$155.2M+24%
Q1 2026$112.3M+30%

REF has the edge over BABA in the latest year-over-year revenue comparison.

BABA Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$6.7B-$4.1B
Q1 2026-$2.7B+$1.5B
Q4 2025$1B-90%
Q3 2025-$3.2B-254%
Q2 2025-$2.7B-182%
Q1 2025-$4.2B-12231%
Q4 2024$10.4B-4.8%
Q3 2024$2.1B-62%

BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.

REF Free Cash Flow

Q1 2025: −$31MQ2 2025: −$5MQ1 2026: −$22MQ2 2026: --Q3 2026: $38M
Q1 2025: −$31MQ2 2025: −$5MQ1 2026: −$22MQ2 2026: --Q3 2026: $38M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q1 2026-$22M+$8.7M

REF and BABA do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.

BABA Total Shares

Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+11.1M shares
1 year+0.9%+21.4M shares
3 years-6.2%-161M shares
5 years-12%-339M shares
Available history-8.4%-221M shares

BABA has the edge over REF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

REF Total Shares

Q1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 51MQ1 2026: 50MQ2 2026: 53MQ3 2026: 56M
Q1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 51MQ1 2026: 50MQ2 2026: 53MQ3 2026: 56M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+5.8%+3.1M shares
1 year+13%+6.2M shares

REF has 56M diluted shares, up 13% from a year ago.

BABA Net Leverage

Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20260.5xVery low
Q1 20260.5xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.8xVery low
Q2 20250.2xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.1xVery low
Q3 2024-0.2xNet Cash

BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

REF Net Leverage

REF's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

BABA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI38.0Neutral
Stochastic12.7Oversold

BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

REF Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI53.5Neutral
Stochastic79.9Neutral

REF's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 80 (neutral).

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBABASector medianRelative
PE21x18x19% above
PE %604713 pts above

BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.

REF PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

REF has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$104.79.9% below
20 week MA$111.115% below
50 week MA$128.026% below
100 week MA$127.726% below
200 week MA$106.411% below

REF has stronger trend alignment. BABA is above 0 of 5 weekly averages versus REF above 1 of 1.

REF Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$15.021% above

REF is in an uptrend: it's above all one of its weekly moving averages, and 21% above its 8-week average.

BABA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$215.5$222.0+3%
2021$222.0$118.7-47%
2022$118.7$85.7-28%
2023$85.7$77.5-9.5%
2024$77.5$85.1+9.7%
2025$85.1$152.2+79%
2026 YTD$152.2$94.4-38%

BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.

REF Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2026 YTD$16.2$18.1+12%

REF has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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