BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
PTON
Peloton Interactive, Inc.
PTON has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
PTON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PTON's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
PTON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $5.53 | — |
| Current | 18x | $5.53 | — |
| Cheap | 39x | $11.63 | +110% |
| Fair | 178x | $53.35 | +865% |
| Expensive | 1,471x | $441 | +7883% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PTON has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over PTON on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
PTON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect PTON's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
PTON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.32 | +7.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.30 | +$0.57 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.14 | +$0.44 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.06 | +$0.50 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.12 | +$0.65 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.27 | +$0.80 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.30 | +$1.21 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.44 | +$1.66 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.77 | +$1.67 |
PTON has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over PTON on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PTON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $559.2M | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $607.7M | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $630.9M | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $656.5M | -2.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $550.8M | -6% |
| Q2 2025 | $606.9M | -5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $624M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $673.9M | -9.4% |
PTON's revenue fell from its 2021 peak and has held roughly level since: $559M last quarter, up 1.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +8.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.3% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2% | +4.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.5% | +5.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.9% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5.2% | +15 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.8% | +18 points |
PTON has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
PTON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $143.4M | +113% |
| Q2 2026 | $88.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2026 | $150.5M | +59% |
| Q4 2025 | $71M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $67.4M | +530% |
| Q2 2025 | $112.4M | +332% |
| Q1 2025 | $94.6M | +1000% |
| Q4 2024 | $106M | +$143.1M |
PTON has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over PTON on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
PTON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +20% | +89.2M shares |
| 1 year | +22% | +95.4M shares |
| 3 years | +47% | +167M shares |
| 5 years | +74% | +224M shares |
| Available history | +88% | +245M shares |
PTON has 525M diluted shares, up 22% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
PTON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 9.3x | High |
| Q1 2021 | -8.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2020 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
PTON has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
PTON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 43.7 | Neutral |
PTON's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
PTON PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PTON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 2.3% above |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
PTON has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
PTON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.23 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.47 | 1.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $5.39 | 2.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $6.38 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.45 | 14% below |
PTON has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
PTON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.0 | $162.7 | +503% |
| 2021 | $162.7 | $38.6 | -76% |
| 2022 | $38.6 | $8.89 | -77% |
| 2023 | $8.89 | $6.09 | -31% |
| 2024 | $6.09 | $9.39 | +54% |
| 2025 | $9.39 | $6.06 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.06 | $5.53 | -8.7% |
PTON has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.