BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over PII overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
PII
Polaris Inc.
PII offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
PII Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
PII's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
PII PE Valuation
PII has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PII Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PII, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over PII on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
PII Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.84 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$3.69 | -$1.03 |
| Q2 2026 | -$4.63 | -$2.74 |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.84 | -1204% |
| Q4 2025 | -$8.18 | -519% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.66 | -174% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -133% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.71 | -90% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.95 | -78% |
PII lost $3.69 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over PII on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PII Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | +9.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | +8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | +9.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | +6.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | -5.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B | -23% |
PII's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $2B last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.4% | +8.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.4% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | -17% | -20 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7% | -6.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.4% | -4.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8% | -2.5 points |
PII's operating margin was 3.6% last quarter, up 2.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
PII Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315.3M | +170% |
| Q2 2026 | $186.1M | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | -$349.9M | -835% |
| Q4 2025 | $114M | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $116.7M | +$149.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $279.8M | +254% |
| Q1 2025 | $47.6M | +$225.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $137.3M | -69% |
PII has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over PII on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
PII Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | +2.8% | +1.6M shares |
| 3 years | +1.2% | +700K shares |
| 5 years | -6.1% | -3.8M shares |
| Available history | -6.1% | -3.8M shares |
PII has 59M diluted shares, up 2.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $100,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $9.2M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $2.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $400,000 |
PII spent $9M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over PII on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PII Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 21.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
PII's net debt is about 10 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
PII Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 51.1 | Neutral |
PII's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 51 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
PII PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PII | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
PII has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
PII Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.6 | 14% above |
| 20 week MA | $62.0 | 4.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $63.5 | 2% above |
| 100 week MA | $56.8 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $76.1 | 15% below |
PII has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
PII Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.4 | $98.7 | -2.6% |
| 2021 | $98.7 | $106.3 | +7.6% |
| 2022 | $106.3 | $100.8 | -5.2% |
| 2023 | $100.8 | $94.8 | -6% |
| 2024 | $94.8 | $57.4 | -39% |
| 2025 | $57.4 | $66.3 | +15% |
| 2026 YTD | $66.3 | $64.7 | -2.4% |
PII has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.