BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over PENN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
PENN
PENN Entertainment, Inc.
PENN offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
PENN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
PENN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over PENN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PENN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.5x | $0.65 | -96% |
| Forward | 11x | $17.53 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $2.25 | -87% |
| Expensive | 29x | $2.94 | -83% |
| Current | 175x | $17.53 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PENN's PE is in its expensive range at 175x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PENN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PENN, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
PENN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.60 | +1503% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.10 | +$6.44 |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.17 | -$5.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.53 | -$5.92 |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.83 | -$3.78 |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.34 | -$3.21 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.55 | +$7.14 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.61 | +$6.42 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.05 | +$1.17 |
PENN has returned to profit: it earned $0.10 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over PENN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PENN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +5.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | +4.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +20% |
PENN has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.9% | +52 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.5% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1% | +1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -45% | -49 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.9% | +19 points |
PENN's operating margin was 6.9% last quarter, up 52 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
PENN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $204.1M | +2389% |
| Q2 2026 | $143.3M | +662% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.8M | +$111.1M |
| Q4 2025 | -$83.2M | +$34.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M | -81% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.8M | -70% |
| Q1 2025 | -$83.3M | +$26.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$118.1M | +$118.9M |
PENN has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
PENN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -8.1M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -15.5M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -37.3M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +17.6M shares |
PENN has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $85M |
| Q3 2025 | $154.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $90.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $25M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
PENN spent $85M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 68% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over PENN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PENN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.7x | High |
| Q3 2023 | 4.3x | High |
| Q2 2023 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2023 | 1.0x | Healthy |
PENN's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 7.7 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
PENN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.0 | Neutral |
PENN's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over PENN on valuation relative to its sector.
PENN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PENN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 175x | 18x | 873% above |
| PE % | 100 | 47 | 53 pts above |
PENN is trading at 175x earnings, a 873% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
PENN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.8 | 1.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $16.6 | 5.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $17.1 | 2.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.8 | 12% below |
PENN has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
PENN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.7 | $94.7 | +268% |
| 2021 | $94.7 | $51.4 | -46% |
| 2022 | $51.4 | $30.5 | -41% |
| 2023 | $30.5 | $26.0 | -15% |
| 2024 | $26.0 | $18.7 | -28% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $15.1 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.1 | $17.5 | +16% |
PENN has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.