BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over PANW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
PANW offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
PANW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PANW's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its profitability is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over PANW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PANW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 48x | $19.37 | -94% |
| Forward | 74x | $323 | — |
| Fair | 117x | $46.90 | -85% |
| Expensive | 344x | $138 | -57% |
| Current | 807x | $323 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PANW's PE is in its expensive range at 807x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 74x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over PANW on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
PANW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PANW, but weaker profitability.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over PANW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PANW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.34 | +985% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.40 | -75% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.21 | -32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.80 | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57 | -59% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.60 | -56% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.77 | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.79 | -44% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.85 | +333% |
PANW's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.40 over the past year, against $3.85 in late 2024.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over PANW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PANW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $3B | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.3B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.3B | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +14% |
PANW has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5% | -15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -6.1% | -16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +4.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +8.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.6% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +7.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +1.9 points |
PANW's operating margin was 5% last quarter, down 15 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
PANW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $788M | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | $384M | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $934.5M | +101% |
| Q2 2025 | $560.4M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $509.4M | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | -1.6% |
PANW has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over PANW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
PANW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -4.6% | -37M shares |
| 1 year | +7.7% | +54.7M shares |
| 3 years | +12% | +79.4M shares |
| 5 years | +32% | +186M shares |
| Available history | +32% | +184M shares |
PANW has 764M diluted shares, up 7.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $500M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
PANW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
PANW has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
PANW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.8 | Oversold |
PANW's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over PANW on valuation relative to its sector.
PANW PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PANW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 807x | 28x | 2,795% above |
| PE % | 89 | 35 | 54 pts above |
PANW is trading at 807x earnings, a 2795% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
PANW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $365.2 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $355.8 | 9.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $260.9 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $225.6 | 43% above |
| 200 week MA | $182.3 | 77% above |
PANW has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
PANW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.9 | $61.2 | +57% |
| 2021 | $61.2 | $93.6 | +53% |
| 2022 | $93.6 | $70.6 | -25% |
| 2023 | $70.6 | $147.4 | +109% |
| 2024 | $147.4 | $186.2 | +26% |
| 2025 | $186.2 | $188.5 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $188.5 | $322.7 | +71% |
PANW has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.