BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over PACK overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
PACK
Ranpak Holdings Corp.
PACK offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
PACK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
PACK's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
PACK PE Valuation
PACK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over PACK on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
PACK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PACK's losses to shrink, with revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over PACK on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
PACK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.40 | +$0.07 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.44 | +$0.01 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.44 | -$0.15 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.45 | -$0.19 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.47 | -$0.23 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.45 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.29 | -$0.01 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.26 | +$0.07 |
PACK is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $0.40 per share over the past year, against $0.69 at its worst in late 2019.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over PACK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PACK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $101.9M | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $105.2M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $101.2M | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $111.9M | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $99.6M | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $92.3M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $91.2M | +6.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $105M | +16% |
PACK has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0% | +5.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -2.3% | +8.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8% | +5 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -5.7% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.8% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3% | +6.4 points |
PACK's operating margin was 0% last quarter, up 5.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
PACK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13.3M | +87% |
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$5.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.5M | +$5M |
| Q4 2025 | $19.7M | +246% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.1M | -32% |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.5M | -131% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.5M | -152% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.7M | -38% |
PACK has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over PACK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
PACK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +133K shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | +4.2% | +3.4M shares |
| 5 years | +5.4% | +4.4M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +14.9M shares |
PACK has 86M diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over PACK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PACK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.0x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 9.2x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 11.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 13.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 13.0x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 12.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 10.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 8.6x | High |
PACK's net debt is about 8.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 13 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
PACK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.1 | Oversold |
PACK's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
PACK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
PACK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
PACK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.70 | 6.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.75 | 27% below |
| 50 week MA | $5.13 | 33% below |
| 100 week MA | $5.06 | 32% below |
| 200 week MA | $5.38 | 36% below |
PACK is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 36% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over PACK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PACK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $8.19 | $12.2 | +49% |
| 2021 | $12.2 | $35.5 | +191% |
| 2022 | $35.5 | $5.36 | -85% |
| 2023 | $5.36 | $5.82 | +8.6% |
| 2024 | $5.82 | $6.95 | +19% |
| 2025 | $6.95 | $5.77 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.77 | $3.46 | -40% |
PACK's yearly returns have swung widely, from +191% in 2021 to −85% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.