BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ONON
On Holding AG
ONON has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
ONON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ONON's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ONON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 23x | $33.07 | — |
| Cheap | 46x | $65.70 | +99% |
| Fair | 90x | $128 | +287% |
| Expensive | 145x | $207 | +527% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ONON has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ONON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ONON, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
ONON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.43 | +198% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.91 | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.75 | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.81 | +76% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.48 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.74 | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.87 | +181% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.46 | +48% |
ONON has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ONON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $895.4M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $956.3M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $901.9M | +32% |
| Q1 2025 | $874.7M | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $730.3M | +36% |
| Q3 2024 | $765.4M | +32% |
ONON has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +2.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +4.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.8% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2024 | 11% | -0.6 points |
ONON has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
ONON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $241.6M | +139% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.9M | +$37M |
| Q4 2025 | $96.4M | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $164.7M | -1.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $100.9M | -2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | -$29.1M | -134% |
| Q4 2024 | $179.4M | +44% |
| Q3 2024 | $167.5M | +40% |
ONON has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
ONON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +278K shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -3M shares |
| 3 years | +3.9% | +12.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.9% | +30.2M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +76.7M shares |
ONON has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
ONON hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ONON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
ONON has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
ONON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.7 | Neutral |
ONON's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over ONON on valuation relative to its sector.
ONON PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ONON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 18x | 28% above |
| PE % | 1 | 57 | 56 pts below |
ONON is trading at 23x earnings, a 28% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
ONON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.4 | 1% below |
| 20 week MA | $33.2 | 0.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $38.0 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.4 | 24% below |
| 200 week MA | $38.9 | 15% below |
ONON is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
ONON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $39.0 | $38.6 | -0.9% |
| 2022 | $38.6 | $16.3 | -58% |
| 2023 | $16.3 | $27.0 | +66% |
| 2024 | $27.0 | $55.6 | +106% |
| 2025 | $55.6 | $46.8 | -16% |
| 2026 YTD | $46.8 | $33.1 | -29% |
ONON has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.