BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over NVR overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
NVR
NVR, Inc.
NVR offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
NVR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NVR's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
NVR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $4,445 | -24% |
| Fair | 16x | $5,774 | -0.7% |
| Current | 16x | $5,814 | — |
| Forward | 17x | $5,814 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $6,711 | +15% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVR has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over NVR on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NVR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVR's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over NVR on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $338.23 | -6.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $362.02 | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $384.90 | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $409.48 | -16% |
| Q4 2025 | $436.55 | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $454.79 | -7% |
| Q2 2025 | $472.96 | -2.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $485.11 | +1.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $506.69 | +9.4% |
NVR's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $362.02 over the past year, against $506.69 in late 2024.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over NVR on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | -7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | -4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.6B | -4.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -0.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.4B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B | +17% |
NVR's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $2.4B last quarter, down 7.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +0.2 points |
NVR has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
NVR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $205.1M | -53% |
| Q2 2026 | -$157.7M | -688% |
| Q1 2026 | $334.8M | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $436M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $433.3M | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.8M | -88% |
| Q1 2025 | $200.7M | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $631.5M | +29% |
NVR has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
NVR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -37.3K shares |
| 1 year | -8.9% | -272K shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -679K shares |
| 5 years | -28% | -1.1M shares |
| Available history | -30% | -1.2M shares |
NVR has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $237.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $373.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $632M |
| Q4 2025 | $502.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $276.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $471.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $583.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $564.3M |
NVR spent $1.7B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 7.9% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NVR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
NVR has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
NVR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 46.9 | Neutral |
NVR's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 47 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
NVR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NVR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 11% below |
| PE % | 53 | 47 | 6 pts above |
NVR has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
NVR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6,020.7 | 3.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $6,225.5 | 6.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $6,630.8 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $7,113.9 | 18% below |
| 200 week MA | $7,095.2 | 18% below |
NVR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 18% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
NVR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3,816.4 | $4,216.4 | +10% |
| 2021 | $4,216.4 | $5,784.6 | +37% |
| 2022 | $5,784.6 | $4,645.0 | -20% |
| 2023 | $4,645.0 | $7,000.5 | +51% |
| 2024 | $7,000.5 | $8,208.4 | +17% |
| 2025 | $8,208.4 | $7,382.2 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $7,382.2 | $5,814.3 | -21% |
NVR has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.