BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NEGG
Newegg Commerce, Inc.
NEGG has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
NEGG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NEGG's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
NEGG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 19x | $8.65 | — |
| Cheap | 61x | $27.55 | +218% |
| Fair | 105x | $47.21 | +446% |
| Expensive | 220x | $98.94 | +1044% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NEGG has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NEGG Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for NEGG to show an outlook.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
NEGG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.45 | +$1.61 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.23 | +$1.92 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.25 | +$1.97 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.71 | +$1.83 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.16 | +$1.68 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.69 | +$1.28 |
| Q1 2024 | -$2.97 | +$0.37 |
| Q1 2023 | -$3.34 | -584% |
NEGG has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over NEGG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over NEGG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NEGG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $320.4M | -8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $306.2M | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $374.4M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $374.4M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $348.5M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $347.2M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $308.7M | -32% |
| Q3 2024 | $308.7M | -2.8% |
NEGG's revenue is growing: $320M last quarter, down 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.4% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4% | +3.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3% | +3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.2% | +3.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | -3.5% | +2.4 points |
NEGG's operating margin was 0.4% last quarter, up 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
NEGG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $24.9M | +$80.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$46.3M | -1188% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.8M | -64% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.8M | -64% |
| Q2 2025 | -$55.5M | -$23.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $4.3M | +$36.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $30M | -40% |
| Q3 2024 | $30M | +70% |
NEGG has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over NEGG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
NEGG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +940 shares |
| 1 year | +7.6% | +1.5M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +2M shares |
| 5 years | -1.4% | -303K shares |
| Available history | +16% | +2.8M shares |
NEGG has 21M diluted shares, up 7.6% from a year ago, despite $2M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $551,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $551,000 |
NEGG spent $2M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 100% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NEGG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -18.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2021 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2021 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2021 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2021 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
NEGG has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
NEGG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.5 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 4.6 | Oversold |
NEGG's weekly RSI is 29 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
NEGG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NEGG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 18x | 7.5% above |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
NEGG has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
NEGG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.6 | 19% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.4 | 36% below |
| 50 week MA | $29.3 | 71% below |
| 100 week MA | $29.7 | 71% below |
| 200 week MA | $24.9 | 65% below |
NEGG is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 65% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over NEGG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NEGG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $64.0 | $94.2 | +47% |
| 2021 | $94.2 | $219.6 | +133% |
| 2022 | $219.6 | $26.4 | -88% |
| 2023 | $26.4 | $25.2 | -4.5% |
| 2024 | $25.2 | $8.89 | -65% |
| 2025 | $8.89 | $53.0 | +496% |
| 2026 YTD | $53.0 | $8.65 | -84% |
NEGG's yearly returns have swung widely, from +496% in 2025 to −88% in 2022. It's down 84% so far in 2026.