BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over NCLH overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCLH offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
NCLH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
NCLH's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over NCLH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NCLH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.7x | $18.06 | — |
| Cheap | 9.9x | $18.49 | +2.4% |
| Forward | 14x | $18.06 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $29.39 | +63% |
| Expensive | 22x | $40.83 | +126% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCLH's PE is in its cheap range at 9.7x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 14x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over NCLH on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NCLH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NCLH's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
NCLH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.26 | -32% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.86 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65 | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.24 | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92 | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.39 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.48 | +54% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.76 | +117% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.89 | +385% |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NCLH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | +6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +6.2% |
NCLH's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $2.9B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | -4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | -1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +3.9 points |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
NCLH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$105.4M | +$621.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $144.9M | -62% |
| Q1 2026 | -$625.2M | +$220.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $21.5M | -86% |
| Q3 2025 | -$726.5M | -$531M |
| Q2 2025 | $381.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$846M | -254% |
| Q4 2024 | $155.8M | +$544.5M |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
NCLH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -3.5M shares |
| 1 year | -7.1% | -35.3M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.2M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +90.4M shares |
| Available history | +113% | +244M shares |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over NCLH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NCLH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.4x | High |
NCLH's net debt is about 5.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
NCLH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.4 | Neutral |
NCLH's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
NCLH PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NCLH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.7x | 18x | 46% below |
| PE % | 15 | 47 | 32 pts below |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
NCLH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.1 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.1 | 5.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.1 | 5.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.6 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.2 | 6.1% below |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
NCLH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $59.1 | $24.6 | -58% |
| 2021 | $24.6 | $22.7 | -7.6% |
| 2022 | $22.7 | $13.0 | -43% |
| 2023 | $13.0 | $20.0 | +54% |
| 2024 | $20.0 | $25.8 | +28% |
| 2025 | $25.8 | $22.8 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.8 | $18.1 | -21% |
NCLH has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.