BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

53
Fundamentals36/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

MLKN

MillerKnoll, Inc.

67
Fundamentals59/ 100
Valuation80/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential20/ 100

MLKN has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

BABA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Weak
Healthy

BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

MLKN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Healthy
Under pressure

MLKN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.

BABA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap16x$69.66-26%
Fair20x$86.59-8.2%
Current21x$94.36—
Expensive26x$115+22%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BABA has the edge over MLKN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

MLKN PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE40x80x121x161x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE40x80x121x161x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward11x$21.33—
Cheap15x$21.02-1.5%
Current15x$21.33—
Fair26x$37.13+74%
Expensive52x$73.38+244%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MLKN's PE is in its cheap range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

BABA has the edge over MLKN on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.

MLKN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Stable
Stable
Limited
Low

Analysts expect MLKN's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

BABA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+33%$125.09
Downside-23%$72.35

Calculated from the latest close: $94.36 on Nov 12.

BABA trails MLKN on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

MLKN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+34%$28.56
Downside-20%$16.97

Calculated from the latest close: $21.33 on Nov 12.

MLKN has a better modeled risk to reward balance than BABA, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

BABA Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$4.42-52%
Q1 2026$6.57-18%
Q4 2025$5.79-22%
Q3 2025$7.85+49%
Q2 2025$9.27+116%
Q1 2025$8.06+71%
Q4 2024$7.47+24%
Q3 2024$5.26-35%

BABA has the edge over MLKN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

MLKN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.67Q1 2024: $0.96Q2 2024: $1.11Q3 2024: $0.87Q4 2024: $0.91Q1 2025: $0.42Q2 2025: $-0.54Q3 2025: $-0.23Q4 2025: $-0.37Q1 2026: $0.16Q2 2026: $1.32Q3 2026: $1.41Forward: $1.93
Q4 2023: $0.67Q1 2024: $0.96Q2 2024: $1.11Q3 2024: $0.87Q4 2024: $0.91Q1 2025: $0.42Q2 2025: $-0.54Q3 2025: $-0.23Q4 2025: $-0.37Q1 2026: $0.16Q2 2026: $1.32Q3 2026: $1.41Forward: $1.93
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.93+37%
Q3 2026$1.41+$1.64
Q2 2026$1.32+$1.86
Q1 2026$0.16-62%
Q4 2025-$0.37-141%
Q3 2025-$0.23-126%
Q2 2025-$0.54-149%
Q1 2025$0.42-56%
Q4 2024$0.91+36%

MLKN has returned to profit: it earned $1.41 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$40.2B+8.3%
Q1 2026$36.5B+2.9%
Q4 2025$42.7B+1.7%
Q3 2025$37.2B+4.8%
Q2 2025$37.2B+1.8%
Q1 2025$35.5B+6.6%
Q4 2024$42B+7.6%
Q3 2024$35.5B+5.2%

BABA has the edge over MLKN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

MLKN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $950MQ1 2024: $872MQ2 2024: $889MQ3 2024: $862MQ4 2024: $970MQ1 2025: $876MQ2 2025: $962MQ3 2025: $956MQ4 2025: $955MQ1 2026: $927MQ2 2026: $1BQ3 2026: $923M
Q4 2023: $950MQ1 2024: $872MQ2 2024: $889MQ3 2024: $862MQ4 2024: $970MQ1 2025: $876MQ2 2025: $962MQ3 2025: $956MQ4 2025: $955MQ1 2026: $927MQ2 2026: $1BQ3 2026: $923M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$923.4M-3.4%
Q2 2026$1B+4.4%
Q1 2026$926.6M+5.8%
Q4 2025$955.2M-1.6%
Q3 2025$955.7M+11%
Q2 2025$961.8M+8.2%
Q1 2025$876.2M+0.4%
Q4 2024$970.4M+2.2%

MLKN's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $923M last quarter, down 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.

BABA Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$6.7B-$4.1B
Q1 2026-$2.7B+$1.5B
Q4 2025$1B-90%
Q3 2025-$3.2B-254%
Q2 2025-$2.7B-182%
Q1 2025-$4.2B-12231%
Q4 2024$10.4B-4.8%
Q3 2024$2.1B-62%

BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.

MLKN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $63MQ1 2024: $44MQ2 2024: $57MQ3 2024: −$2MQ4 2024: $33MQ1 2025: $39MQ2 2025: $31MQ3 2025: −$21MQ4 2025: $34MQ1 2026: $39MQ2 2026: $26MQ3 2026: $17M
Q4 2023: $63MQ1 2024: $44MQ2 2024: $57MQ3 2024: −$2MQ4 2024: $33MQ1 2025: $39MQ2 2025: $31MQ3 2025: −$21MQ4 2025: $34MQ1 2026: $39MQ2 2026: $26MQ3 2026: $17M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$16.6M+$37.9M
Q2 2026$25.9M-18%
Q1 2026$39M+0.5%
Q4 2025$34M+3%
Q3 2025-$21.3M-$19.8M
Q2 2025$31.4M-44%
Q1 2025$38.8M-12%
Q4 2024$33M-47%

MLKN has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

BABA Total Shares

Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+11.1M shares
1 year+0.9%+21.4M shares
3 years-6.2%-161M shares
5 years-12%-339M shares
Available history-8.4%-221M shares

BABA has the edge over MLKN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

MLKN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 74MQ2 2024: 74MQ3 2024: 70MQ4 2024: 70MQ1 2025: 68MQ2 2025: 69MQ3 2025: 69MQ4 2025: 69MQ1 2026: 69MQ2 2026: 69MQ3 2026: 70M
Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 74MQ2 2024: 74MQ3 2024: 70MQ4 2024: 70MQ1 2025: 68MQ2 2025: 69MQ3 2025: 69MQ4 2025: 69MQ1 2026: 69MQ2 2026: 69MQ3 2026: 70M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1%+719K shares
1 year+1.2%+846K shares
3 years-7.5%-5.7M shares
5 years+5.6%+3.7M shares
Available history+18%+10.6M shares

MLKN has 70M diluted shares, up 1.2% from a year ago.

BABA Net Leverage

Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20260.5xVery low
Q1 20260.5xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.8xVery low
Q2 20250.2xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.1xVery low
Q3 2024-0.2xNet Cash

BABA has the edge over MLKN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MLKN Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.8xQ1 2024: 3.6xQ2 2024: 3.4xQ3 2024: 3.9xQ4 2024: 4.0xQ1 2025: 7.0xQ2 2025: 5.9xQ3 2025: 5.1xQ4 2025: 5.4xQ1 2026: 3.2xQ2 2026: 3.2xQ3 2026: 3.3x
Q4 2023: 3.8xQ1 2024: 3.6xQ2 2024: 3.4xQ3 2024: 3.9xQ4 2024: 4.0xQ1 2025: 7.0xQ2 2025: 5.9xQ3 2025: 5.1xQ4 2025: 5.4xQ1 2026: 3.2xQ2 2026: 3.2xQ3 2026: 3.3x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20263.3xElevated
Q2 20263.2xElevated
Q1 20263.2xElevated
Q4 20255.4xHigh
Q3 20255.1xHigh
Q2 20255.9xHigh
Q1 20257.0xHigh
Q4 20244.0xElevated

MLKN's net debt is about 3.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.1 years a year ago.

BABA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI38.0Neutral
Stochastic12.7Oversold

BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

MLKN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI54.3Neutral
Stochastic40.8Neutral

MLKN's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBABASector medianRelative
PE21x18x19% above
PE %604713 pts above

BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.

MLKN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricMLKNSector medianRelative
PE15x18x16% below
PE %184729 pts below

MLKN has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$104.79.9% below
20 week MA$111.115% below
50 week MA$128.026% below
100 week MA$127.726% below
200 week MA$106.411% below

BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.

MLKN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$21.01.8% above
20 week MA$21.81.9% below
50 week MA$19.410% above
100 week MA$19.211% above
200 week MA$21.40.5% below

MLKN has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

BABA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$215.5$222.0+3%
2021$222.0$118.7-47%
2022$118.7$85.7-28%
2023$85.7$77.5-9.5%
2024$77.5$85.1+9.7%
2025$85.1$152.2+79%
2026 YTD$152.2$94.4-38%

BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.

MLKN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$41.6$34.6-17%
2021$34.6$37.6+8.6%
2022$37.6$21.1-44%
2023$21.1$26.7+26%
2024$26.7$22.4-16%
2025$22.4$18.1-19%
2026 YTD$18.1$21.3+18%

MLKN has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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