BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.
MCRI has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
MCRI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
MCRI's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
MCRI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $99.43 | -10% |
| Forward | 16x | $111 | — |
| Current | 18x | $111 | — |
| Fair | 19x | $122 | +10% |
| Expensive | 28x | $176 | +58% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MCRI has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over MCRI on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MCRI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MCRI's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MCRI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.99 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.31 | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.24 | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.90 | +49% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.43 | +41% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.43 | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.21 | -1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.96 | -6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.84 | -8.6% |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over MCRI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MCRI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $146.3M | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $142.6M | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $136.6M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $140M | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $142.8M | +3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $136.9M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $125.4M | +3.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $134.5M | +4.9% |
MCRI's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $146M last quarter, up 2.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +18 points |
| Q3 2025 | 27% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9% | -17 points |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
MCRI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $41.9M | -22% |
| Q2 2026 | $25.6M | -1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $43M | +158% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.2M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.5M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $26M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.6M | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $26.2M | +20% |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MCRI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -113K shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -588K shares |
| 3 years | -7.4% | -1.5M shares |
| 5 years | -6.6% | -1.3M shares |
| Available history | -2.9% | -536K shares |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $37.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $212,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $17.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $41.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $11.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $63,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $9.7M |
MCRI spent $97M buying back its own shares over the past year.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MCRI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
MCRI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.8 | Oversold |
MCRI's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
MCRI PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MCRI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 2.6% below |
| PE % | 33 | 47 | 14 pts below |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
MCRI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.3 | 2.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $119.4 | 7.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $110.6 | 0.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $100.0 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $85.4 | 30% above |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
MCRI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $48.1 | $59.5 | +24% |
| 2021 | $59.5 | $73.5 | +24% |
| 2022 | $73.5 | $77.0 | +4.7% |
| 2023 | $77.0 | $69.2 | -10% |
| 2024 | $69.2 | $78.1 | +13% |
| 2025 | $78.1 | $98.3 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $98.3 | $110.8 | +13% |
MCRI has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.