BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
MAR has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
MAR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Unavailable |
MAR's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over MAR in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MAR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $235 | -45% |
| Fair | 31x | $306 | -28% |
| Forward | 33x | $425 | — |
| Current | 42x | $425 | — |
| Expensive | 53x | $529 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAR's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 33x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MAR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MAR, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MAR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.98 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.04 | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.67 | +8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.55 | +8.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.51 | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.48 | -0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.88 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.79 | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.33 | -18% |
MAR earned $10.04 per share over the past year, up 5.9% from the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over MAR on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MAR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7B | +8% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1B | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.7B | +6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.7B | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.5B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.7B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.3B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.4B | +5.5% |
MAR's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $7B last quarter, up 8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | -0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -0.1 points |
MAR has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
MAR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $796M | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $728M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $657M | +$681M |
| Q3 2025 | $951M | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $488M | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $512M | -24% |
| Q4 2024 | -$24M | -104% |
MAR has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MAR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -3.3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.1% | -11.3M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -38.9M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -68.1M shares |
| Available history | -22% | -74.3M shares |
MAR has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $700M |
| Q4 2025 | $1B |
| Q3 2025 | $800M |
| Q2 2025 | $749M |
| Q1 2025 | $751M |
| Q4 2024 | $586M |
MAR spent $4.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 41% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MAR Net Leverage
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
MAR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 72.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 89.3 | Overbought |
MAR's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over MAR on valuation relative to its sector.
MAR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MAR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 18x | 135% above |
| PE % | 81 | 47 | 34 pts above |
MAR is trading at 42x earnings, a 135% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
MAR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $387.0 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $369.3 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $353.3 | 20% above |
| 100 week MA | $310.1 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $263.5 | 61% above |
MAR has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
MAR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $152.7 | $128.8 | -16% |
| 2021 | $128.8 | $165.2 | +28% |
| 2022 | $165.2 | $148.6 | -10% |
| 2023 | $148.6 | $225.5 | +52% |
| 2024 | $225.5 | $283.7 | +26% |
| 2025 | $283.7 | $315.6 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $315.6 | $424.7 | +35% |
MAR has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.