BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over LUCK overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
LUCK
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation
LUCK offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LUCK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
LUCK's revenue and cash flow are currently stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
LUCK PE Valuation
LUCK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LUCK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for LUCK to show an outlook.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over LUCK on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
LUCK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | -$0.04 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.33 | -$0.20 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.62 | -$0.59 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.65 | -2267% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.38 | +$0.19 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.13 | +$0.48 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.03 | -106% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.03 | -83% |
LUCK lost $0.42 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over LUCK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LUCK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $302.6M | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $303.9M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $342.2M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $306.9M | +2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $292.3M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $301.2M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $339.9M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $300.1M | -1.8% |
LUCK's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $303M last quarter, up 3.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -4.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | +4.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -2.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | -0.6 points |
LUCK has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
LUCK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$4.4M | +$27.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$35.5M | -$34.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $42.9M | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.2M | +$26.9M |
| Q3 2025 | -$32.3M | -$20.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.1M | +$39.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $61.1M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | -$11.7M | -$3.9M |
LUCK has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
LUCK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -1.9M shares |
| 1 year | -2.7% | -3.8M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -34.2M shares |
| 5 years | +1336% | +125M shares |
LUCK has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $129,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $7M |
| Q1 2025 | $19.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $37.8M |
LUCK spent $30M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 57% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over LUCK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LUCK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 6.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.8x | High |
LUCK's net debt is about 6.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
LUCK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 21.1 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 6.5 | Oversold |
LUCK's weekly RSI is 21 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
LUCK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | LUCK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
LUCK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
LUCK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.43 | 30% below |
| 20 week MA | $5.79 | 46% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.29 | 57% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.47 | 63% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.4 | 70% below |
LUCK is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 70% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has the edge over LUCK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LUCK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.70 | $9.15 | -5.7% |
| 2022 | $9.15 | $13.3 | +45% |
| 2023 | $13.3 | $14.2 | +6.5% |
| 2024 | $14.2 | $10.8 | -24% |
| 2025 | $10.8 | $8.89 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.89 | $3.12 | -65% |
LUCK has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 65% so far in 2026.