BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LOVE
The Lovesac Company
LOVE has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LOVE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
LOVE's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
LOVE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $15.39 | +1% |
| Current | 13x | $15.23 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $27.75 | +82% |
| Expensive | 52x | $63.42 | +316% |
| Forward | 223x | $15.23 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LOVE has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over LOVE on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
LOVE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect LOVE to return to profit, with revenue growing.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over LOVE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
LOVE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.07 | -94% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.21 | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.25 | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | -59% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32 | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.72 | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.79 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.69 | -52% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.38 | -68% |
LOVE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.21 over the past year, against $2.86 in early 2022.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over LOVE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over LOVE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LOVE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $161.2M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $138.2M | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $248M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $150.2M | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $160.5M | +2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $138.4M | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $241.5M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $149.9M | -2.7% |
LOVE's revenue fell from its 2024 peak and has held roughly level since: $161M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.8% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -11% | -5.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -5.5% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -5.2% | -2.8 points |
LOVE's operating margin was 6.8% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
LOVE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.4M | +122% |
| Q2 2026 | -$40.4M | +$9.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $78.5M | +103% |
| Q4 2025 | -$10.2M | -$3.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.8M | +6482% |
| Q2 2025 | -$50M | -$35.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $38.7M | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | -$6.6M | +$10.2M |
LOVE has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
LOVE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -15.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +28.3K shares |
| 3 years | -5% | -770K shares |
| 5 years | -9% | -1.4M shares |
| Available history | +0.8% | +114K shares |
LOVE has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $6M |
| Q1 2025 | $16.5M |
LOVE spent $7M buying back its own shares over the past year.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
LOVE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
LOVE has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
LOVE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 45.2 | Neutral |
LOVE's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
LOVE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | LOVE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 18x | 30% below |
| PE % | 15 | 47 | 32 pts below |
LOVE has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
LOVE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.2 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $15.9 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.1 | 0.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $17.0 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $20.9 | 27% below |
LOVE has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
LOVE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.8 | $44.3 | +199% |
| 2021 | $44.3 | $67.1 | +51% |
| 2022 | $67.1 | $20.0 | -70% |
| 2023 | $20.0 | $25.6 | +28% |
| 2024 | $25.6 | $24.3 | -5% |
| 2025 | $24.3 | $15.3 | -37% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.3 | $15.2 | -0.3% |
LOVE has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.